Cup Series 2023 Championship Race Predictions, Odds & Picks

Two down, one to go. After crowning the Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series champions, all that’s left of the NASCAR season is today’s Cup Series Championship Race (3:00 pm ET, NBC).

In the first two Championship Weekend races at Phoenix Raceway, the favorites came up empty.

On Friday night, Corey Heim and Carson Hocevar lost out in a wild Craftsman 150, while Ben Rhodes edged Grant Enfinger to win his second Truck Series title.

In last night’s Xfinity Series Championship Race, the race and the title could have been won on the final lap by any of the four contenders. In the end, Cole Custer pulled out in front after a frantic final restart and drove away from Justin Allgaier, John Hunter Nemechek, and Sam Mayer to win his first Xfinity Series championship.

Bet on Sunday’s Top Sporting Events at BetDSI

What is in store for today’s Cup Series Championship Race (a.k.a. the Season Finale 500)?

Each of the past three years, the driver who won pole went on to win the race and the title: Chase Elliott in 2020 (after winning pole but having to start from the back of the field due to failing pre-race inspection), Kyle Larson in 2021, and Joey Logano in 2022.

If that streak continues, William Byron will get to have the big flag, the celebratory donuts, and the big championship trophy.

After surviving a nerve-wracking Xfinity 500 weekend at Martinsville to land in the Championship 4 for the first time, Byron, who leads the Cup Series in wins this season with six, will start up front, ahead of teammate Kyle Larson (fourth), Christopher Bell (13th), and Ryan Blaney (15th).

But despite starting the race from the best spot in the field, he is not the race or championship favorite, according to oddsmakers.

NASCAR Cup Series Odds for Championship Weekend

Odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Odds to Win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship

• Kyle Larson +200
• William Byron +225
• Ryan Blaney +250
• Christopher Bell +325

Odds to Win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race

• Kyle Larson +275
• William Byron +300
• Ryan Blaney +400
• Christopher Bell +500
• Kevin Harvick +700
• Martin Truex Jr. +1400
• Denny Hamlin +1800
• Joey Logano +2800
• Chris Buescher +3000
• Tyler Reddick +3000
• Ross Chastain +3300
• Brad Keselowski +4000
• Ty Gibbs +4000
• Chase Briscoe +5000
• Chase Elliott +5000
• Kyle Busch +5000
• Bubba Wallace +6600
• Aric Almirola +15000

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Predictions & Picks

While most of the attention understandably will be on the quartet of title contenders, the Cup Series Championship Race will mark the end of the line for Harvick, the 2014 series champion.

Unless Harvick can win today, he will end his final season winless, with his last win coming in last year’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond.

However, there’s a real chance he could ride off into the sunset with a 61st Cup Series win, as he will start third after finishing behind Byron and Martin Truex Jr. in qualifying.

2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Starting Lineup

1. William Byron (Cup Series Championship 4)
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Kyle Larson (Cup Series Championship 4)
5. Bubba Wallace
6. Erik Jones
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Ross Chastain
9. Chris Buescher
10. Tyler Reddick
11. Ty Gibbs
12. Ryan Preece
13. Christopher Bell (Cup Series Championship 4)
14. Todd Gilliland
15. Ryan Blaney (Cup Series Championship 4)
16. Daniel Suarez
17. Joey Logano
18. Kyle Busch
19. Michael McDowell
20. Chase Elliott
21. Austin Dillon
22. Carson Hocevar
23. Alex Bowman
24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
25. Harrison Burton
26. Chase Briscoe
27. Austin Cindric
28. Aric Almirola
29. Corey LaJoie
30. Ryan Newman
31. Brad Keselowski
32. A.J. Allmendinger
33. Ty Dillon
34. J.J. Yeley
35. Justin Haley
36. B.J. McLeod

Harvick has started in the top five only three other times in the 2023 Cup Series season. In those three times, he finished 11th in the Coca Cola 600 (started second), tenth in the Enjoy Illinois 300 (started fourth), and fourth in the HighPoint.com 400 (started fourth).

Will Harvick close out his full-time Cup Series career with at least a high finish? He finished fifth in the March race at Phoenix, one of his six top-five finishes thus far this season. At Bovada, he is +120 to score another top five, and I’m locking that in.

Will Truex wrap up a disappointing finish with a strong run at Phoenix? He has gone a dozen races without a top-five finish, and he has landed in the top ten only once in the playoffs, a ninth-place finish in the South Point 400 at Las Vegas.

Notably, despite his lofty starting position, he is only -140 at Bovada (and BetUS) to record a top-ten finish in the Cup Series Championship Race. Though he was deserted by Lady Luck at the worst possible time of the season, I can’t pass up on those odds.

In the March race, Tyler Reddick finished third. That was his second straight top-three finish in that race, but he has finished only 19th, 19th, and 23rd in the season finale at Phoenix in his Cup Series career.

Will he post his first fall top ten there today? He will start tenth, and he is +125 to finish there or better. After a disappointing 26th-place result at Martinsville ended his championship hopes, I like his chances to end on a positive note.

In that March race, the two drivers who crossed the finish line ahead of Reddick were Byron, the race winner, and Blaney.

That is part of the reason that I see those two drivers are the most likely to come away with the title.

None of Blaney’s 21 career wins in NASCAR’s major series (ten in the Cup Series, seven in the Xfinity Series, and four in the Truck Series) have come at Phoenix.

Recent Results for Ryan Blaney at Phoenix Raceway

• 2023 (#1): 2nd
• 2022 (#2): 2nd
• 2022 (#1): 4th
• 2021 (#2): 4th
• 2021 (#1): 10th
• 2020 (#2): 6th
• 2020 (#1): 37th
• 2019 (#2): 3rd
• 2019 (#1): 3rd

Blaney, who won last week at Martinsville to book his spot in the Championship 4, has finished first, 12th, sixth, second, and first in his last five races. So, in addition to the recent history at Phoenix, he is hot at the right time of year.

Will it be his day? Or will it be Byron’s? Since the season finale moved from Homestead to Phoenix, no one has swept both Phoenix races in a season.

Will Byron become the first to do so? This season has not been a fruitful one for polesitters, as only three have won: Joey Logano at the Ambetter Health 400 in March, Kyle Busch at the Enjoy Illinois 300 in June, and Ross Chastain at the Ally 400, also in June.

But Byron has shown this season that he can win anywhere, including Phoenix, and the way he listened to his team and handled a challenging situation last week at Martinsville shows that the other elements line up as well.

Where to Bet on NASCAR

Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others, like today’s Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix.

Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).

Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:

There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.