NASCAR playoffs scouting report: The garage breaks down the Round of 8

While the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs should in theory feature the eight best drivers and teams from the season, that isn’t always the case. Like most playoff formats, upsets spring up along the way, and teams that were expected to perform well instead take a surprising flop.

But this year’s Round of 8 field features a strong group, with seven of the drivers having won multiple races this season. Christopher Bell is the lone exception, and all he did was post the fourth-best average finish among drivers who’ve started every race this season. (Kyle Busch, with three wins, was the only driver with multiple victories who failed to advance.)

Among those still vying for the championship, there are no slouches, no Cinderellas on a fairytale playoff run.

The strength of the field means a case could be made for each of the eight semifinalists to make the four-driver, one-race, winner-take-all final Nov. 5 at Phoenix. But who among them is best positioned to advance when this three-race round begins Sunday at Las Vegas, followed by races at Homestead and the cutoff race at Martinsville?

To answer this question, The Athletic spoke to drivers, crew chiefs and competition directors and asked them to assess the strengths and weaknesses of all eight drivers. In exchange for their candor, they were granted anonymity so they felt comfortable providing an honest and open scouting report.

William Byron

Team: No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Crew chief: Rudy Fugle
Wins: Six
Points to the cutline: Plus-20

Strengths

“I see them as the strongest team in the garage. They’re the best.” …

“I’m struggling to find any weaknesses right now. I think it’s their championship to lose. William is on top of his game.” …

“He just wins. And he does it in a unique fashion where he’s not always dominating but puts himself in the position at the end of races to capitalize.” …

“If I pull up SMT data to gauge myself off of someone or a certain car or on a week-to-week basis, I always include the 24 car. They’ve been the most consistent performer throughout the year, and I think that’ll get them in the Championship Four.” …

“The chemistry he has with Rudy is excellent.” …

“They’re pretty much a threat to win every weekend at every track.” …

“This is a championship-caliber driver and team. They’re the favorites to win it all.”

Weaknesses

“I don’t see a weakness with this team. Not one.” …

“My only concern is their lack of experience in must-win situations and how they handle that. And though I think they’ll be fine, we haven’t really seen these guys pushed like that.” …

“From a pressure standpoint, it’s uncharted territory.”

Martin Truex Jr.

Team: No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Crew chief: James Small
Wins: Three
Points to the cutline: Plus-15

Strengths

“They are always so good at these three (Round of 8) tracks, which should help them right the ship.” …

“They can’t keep running like they have, eventually they have to turn things around and be the team that won the regular season championship. You’d think.” …

“Martin is too good, and that team is too good to write off.” …

“Say what you want, but this team knows how to get it done, even with all their issues right now.” …

“I love James, he’s a smart crew chief. They also probably got the strongest race engineer (Jeff Curtis) in the garage and on the (pit) box, so that definitely is in their favor.”

Weaknesses

“What the hell happened to them? What in the world happened? Not a single top-15 finish in the playoffs so far, how is that possible?” …

“You don’t know where this team is at right now. He could finish 25th today, then next week go and sit on the pole and lead every lap. It’s so hard to tell where this team is at because when he wins, he wins dominant. They don’t back into (wins), but I haven’t seen that they have the outright speed to go out and win.” …

“From where they were running in the regular season to this, overnight, I don’t understand it. Literally, overnight.” …

“I don’t know. I have no idea what’s going on with them.” …

“I don’t really know where the source of the problem is, but it’s widespread.” …

“I think a lot of it depends on what side of the bed Martin wakes up on.”

Denny Hamlin

Team: No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Crew chief: Chris Gabehart
Wins: Three
Points to the cutline: +11

Strengths

“Denny is due to have a year where he gets the breaks.” …

“I wouldn’t bet against him, even if he’s annoying. I like his arrogance. I like him embracing who he is right now.” …

“That team is lights out, man. They just are.” …

“They’re so good at always executing.” …

“I have tremendous respect for Chris as a crew chief. I think he is one of the best. He’s obviously really smart. He seems to think things out well, not a shoot-from-the hip kind of guy.” …

“Chris is the kind of crew chief I would like to have.”

Weaknesses

“Speeding penalties can get him.” …

“Some people will say maybe he’s choked in the past, and while I don’t think that’s true, I mean, he has made mistakes at critical times and that’s the only thing I think is a pitfall, potentially.” …

“As good as they are, they still tend to make that one killer mistake at the worst time.” …

“Phoenix is his Achilles heel. Maybe this is finally the year that he can do it, but I don’t think he can get past Phoenix.” …

“He hasn’t made a lot of friends.”

Kyle Larson

Team: No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Crew chief: Cliff Daniels
Wins: Three
Points to the cutline: Plus-3

Strengths

“Super fast, and seems to be able to be fast everywhere.” …

“They’re pretty much tit-for-tat with the 24 team with speed everywhere we go.” …

“When it’s time to dig deep, it seems like that team can always get it done.” …

“Their pit crew is fast and they don’t make a lot of mistakes. You don’t see too many loose wheels with this group.” …

“These are some tracks that line up pretty well for him, Homestead being one of them — I think he’ll be really, really fast there. And a win there puts him in the final four, and we know what he can do at Phoenix because he’s done it before (in 2021).” …

“As long as they don’t beat themselves — a big ‘if’ — they’ll be just fine.”

Weaknesses

“They’re so up and down.” …

“How did this team not have a top 10 (finish) in the second round? I don’t get it.” …

“I watched the Roval from last year, and Cliff — like he is a super intense, high-intensity, very detailed guy — and I felt like he drove Kyle into a mistake and then overreacted.” …

“I would take the 24 (team) right now over this group.” …

“Mistakes. Too many mistakes.” …

“(Larson) is just extremely fast, so I can easily see him being somebody that could win to get into the Championship Four but could also just as easily take himself out.”

Chris Buescher

Team: No. 17 RFK Racing Ford
Crew chief: Scott Graves
Wins: Three
Points to the cutline: Minus-3

Strengths

“If they run like they did at the end of the regular season, they can beat anyone.” …

“He’s so underrated. People don’t realize how good Chris is.” …

“He’s very capable of hitting singles and doubles and doing what he needs to do to move on.” …

“When are people going to take Buescher seriously and realize he’s a championship contender?” …

“He’s not overly aggressive and he brings (his car) home in one piece. He’s good at capitalizing on other people’s mistakes.” …

“I don’t see him winning to (advance), but I definitely could see him pointing his way in.”

Weaknesses

“That team found a lot of something in the middle of the season but doesn’t seem to be quite as potent now.” …

“They won three races and were ripping it, but they’ve fizzled out since.” …

“I wonder if they’re going to be fast enough to win at Vegas and Miami, because I know they’re not going to be good enough to win at Martinsville.” …

“Their intermediate track speed is just OK.” …

“He got hot too early.”

Christopher Bell

Team: No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Crew chief: Adam Stevens
Wins: One
Points to the cutline: Minus-8

Strengths

“We saw last year (winning cutoff races at the Roval and Martinsville) how they’re able to come through in clutch situations.” … “

“He can pull off again what he did last year.” …

“Very capable of winning at any of the next three tracks. And I expect him to.” …

“Adam is as good a crew chief in the garage as anyone. He’s so good at making a car run better.” …

“It’s a big help that the Toyotas are getting stronger and stronger every week.” …

“They’ve had a lot of raw speed since the start of the playoffs.”

Weaknesses

“Way too inconsistent.” …

“Team is mistake-prone. …

“Have you seen their pit stops?” …

“I don’t get how this team has only one win. It feels like they disappear at times.” …

“I don’t see this team being a threat to make it to the final four.”

Tyler Reddick

Team: No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota
Crew chief: Billy Scott
Wins: Two
Points to the cutline: Minus-8

Strengths

“He’s going to make a run at the championship. You watch.” …

“If I was them, I’d bring a Jordan (paint scheme) to the track every week. I mean, when he has that on there, he’s just faster. How can you not be, right?” …

“Tyler Reddick is probably one of the best raw talents when he doesn’t beat himself.” …

“He works really hard at it; he puts a lot of prep in it. His reactions are so fast.” …

“Amazing car control.” …

“So many times, it looks like he’s going to spin out then he’ll catch it.”

Weaknesses

“His Achilles heel is he can make a mistake and then it gets compounded because of the mental state it puts him in.” …

“Reddick and the team have to find a way to minimize mistakes and minimize the effect.” …

“He’s a guy that makes mistakes. He just is. And his are more costly, it seems like.” …

“They’ve had struggles on pit road, more so than other teams. And big mistakes, not just like losing one or two spots but a big blemish.”

Ryan Blaney

Team: No. 12 Team Penske Ford
Crew chief: Jonathan Hassler
Wins: Two
Points to the cutline: Minus-10

Strengths

“Outside of superspeedways, these are probably three of Blaney’s best tracks.” …

“Having the entire Penske team behind him can’t hurt. You know he’ll be getting full support these next three weeks.” …

“If he can make it out of this round and to the final four, Phoenix is one of his best tracks and he has a legitimate shot at winning the whole thing.” …

“If Blaney doesn’t have a Blaney moment where he loses his mind on the radio, he’ll be fine and he will probably be the only one that can beat the 24 at Phoenix.” …

“I think how they won the Coke 600 this year should prove every and any self-doubt wrong.”

Weaknesses

“That Talladega win kind of came out of nowhere as that was their only top-five finish since winning at Charlotte (in May). That doesn’t sit well when you’re trying to make the Championship Four.” …

“Team Penske just hasn’t been fast.” …

“Ford just doesn’t have the same speed as the Hendrick Chevys and Gibbs Toyotas.” …

“The biggest thing is his temper and him losing his mind. If he doesn’t do that, he can be really good.” …

“I think (Blaney’s past mistakes in the playoffs) weigh heavily on the team just from an execution standpoint.”