One driver stands out as betting value at Phoenix

Chase Elliott, Joey Logano and Christopher Bell are in the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday. Elliott has five wins on the year and is the favorite for the championship. Logani took the title in 2018 at Homestead. Bell won at Loudon and finished second at Richmond. He is from Joe Gibbs Racing, whose Kyle Busch won the 2019 and ’15 Cup titles.

Ross Chastain is a strong contender at Phoenix. He has four top fives in the last five races and is second in his series. Chasstain pulled off a miracle at Martinsville.

Logano is the favorite to win the championship. He has been there before and has more experience. Jim Sannes is seeing value in Logano at +340 to be the champion. He also likes Logana because he has had more time to prepare for Phoenix.

Chastain made enemies at Martinsville. Denny Hamlin seems calm after the race last week. He might let it go now, but Ranftle is worried if they get close to each other.

The final race of the NASCAR season has been won by a championship contender all eight times. The gap between the top four and the rest of field is tighter than in the past. Last year, William Byron and Kyle Busch were offered at +2500 to win at Phoenix. This year they are priced at -1800 or shorter. The parity brought about by the Next Gen car has created this relative consolidation.

A casino player bet $5,000 to win $45,00 on Elliott at +900 in March. Chastain started at 125-1 in the offseason. at BetMGM, Logano is a slight loser for the house.