Nationals-Astros prediction, pick, how to watch

The Washington Nationals (26-38) visit the Houston Astros (37-29) for the opener of their three-game series. First pitch commences Tuesday at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Astros prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Nationals-Astros MLB odds,

MLB Odds: Nationals-Astros Odds

Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+105)

Houston Astros: -1.5 (-126)

Over: 8.5 (-104)

Under: 8.5 (-118)

How To Watch Nationals vs. Astros

TV: MASN/2, ATTSN-Southwest

Stream: MLB.tv

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET/ 5:10 p.m. PT

*See how to watch Nationals-Astros LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 3-7 (Fifth in the NL East)

Run Line Record: 38-26 (59%)

Over Record: 29-32-3 (48%)

Despite holding the second-worst record in the National League, the Nationals have proven feisty and are nowhere near as bad as the AL's bottom feeders. They really picked things up in May where they finished 14-15, however, Washington has struggled to start June. They've lost six of their last seven games – although they did salvage a road series with Atlanta by taking the finale 6-2. Still, they face an uphill battle in attempting to cover as road underdogs and will need their offense to keep pace with Houston if they want to keep things close.

Lefty Patrick Corbin (4-6) makes his 14th start of the season for the Nationals tonight. The 33-year-old southpaw has been better than his career-worst 2022 season but still holds shaky ratios of a 4.89 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Corbin's biggest issues come via the amount of hard contact he's allowing. Corbin ranks in the eighth percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 11th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. That's culminated in him allowing an expected batting average of .323 – a number that ranks in the bottom 1% of the MLB. Still, Corbin does a good job of limiting walks despite issuing nine free passes in his last three starts. The Nationals have enjoyed his starts lately  – winning five of his last seven outings. That said, the Astros have pummeled lefties this year to the tune of a .763 OPS.

While the Nationals haven't been horrible on offense, they still rank just 21st in runs per game. That likely won't improve tonight considering they're hitting just .247 against righties this year. Jeimer Candelario (.841 OPS) and Joey Meneses (.749 OPS) have been the only Nationals worth anything against righties. Meneses in particular could be in store for a big night considering he's batting .357 in eight games this month.

Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 4-6 (Second in the AL West)

Run Line Record: 34-42 (52%)

Over Record: 32-33-1 (49%)

Houston hasn't had the greatest title defense we've seen but they've picked things up of late. The Astros went 17-10 in May and now sit just 4.5 games back of the first-place Rangers. Still, Houston just lost Yordan Alvarez and they're just 5-6 in June. Coming off a series loss to the Guardians and a sweep via the Blue Jays, the Astros are far from playing their best ball right now. Consequently, they need a bounce-back start from Hunter Brown and some offensive heroics if they want to cover as 1.5-run favorites tonight.

Rookie Hunter Brown (5-3) makes his 13th start of the season for the Astros tonight. The 24-year-old righty broke camp with the team and has been an integral part of their rotation thus far. Through 12 starts, Brown owns a solid 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He's been excellent at generating strikeouts with a 10.4 K/9 and 79th percentile K rate. Brown can give up his fair share of hard contact but sits in the 66th percentile in xBA and 77th percentile in xSLG. While he has taken a step back after a dominant opening month, Brown looked solid in his most recent outing – giving up just three runs on three hits in 6.0 innings against the Blue Jays. Considering the Nationals are hitting significantly worse against righties (.675 OPS) compared to lefties (.793 OPS), Brown should be in line for a strong quality tonight.

Houston's offense hasn't been quite the juggernaut we've grown accustomed to, but they still rank 14th in runs and have been significantly better against lefties. That starts with Kyle Tucker who owns a stellar .888 OPs against lefties despite an otherwise slow start to the season. Still, they'll need second baseman Jose Altuve to get back on track after a slow start to June and a poor track record against left-handed pitching this year.

Final Nationals-Astros Prediction & Pick

Washington has been one of the best teams in the league against the run line. Still, their struggles against righties can't be ignored. Given Houston's prowess against lefties, the Astros should have no problems covering tonight.

Final Nationals-Astros Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (-126)