Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction, Picks, Odds: Tuesday, 8/8
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals for a doubleheader on Tuesday after Monday’s game was rained out.
Let’s break down today’s best bet for both Nationals vs. Phillies games.
Nationals vs. Phillies Game 1 Best Bet
4:05 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI
Probable pitchers:Trevor Williams (RHP) vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP)
The betting market seems fair for the first game of the doubleheader.
Wheeler is super undervalued right now. He’s been killed by the worst defense in baseball playing behind him, so his expected ERA and FIP are about a half-run lower than his 3.71 ERA.
His 22.8% strikeout minus walk rate is elite, and his Statcast profile proves he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Wheeler should see some positive regression now that the Phillies have put Bryce Harper at first base. This allows Kyle Schwarber (baseball’s worst defensive outfielder) to DH while Brandon Marsh plays in left field, providing a major defensive boost.
Over the past month, the Nationals have the third-worst expected wOBA against right-handed pitching (.280). Over the past two weeks, they boast a 50% ground-ball rate and a 28.8% hard-contact rate, a terrible batted-ball profile.
Surprisingly, Wheeler has been shelled by the Nationals this year, allowing 11 earned runs over 8 ⅔ against them. But you’d have to think the combination of Washington’s slump and Philadelphia’s defensive improvements will topple that trend.
The Nationals will roll with Trevor Williams, who’s been up and down all season. He’s a tad undervalued in the strikeout market, simply because his fastball records so many strikes (72%) and his slider can look great at times. But we can’t trust him. His expected ERA is north of 5.00.
The Phillies’ offense has struggled against right-handed pitching all season, although the team has trended up in recent weeks.
The Phillies have a clear bullpen advantage. The Phillies have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
However, in the past two weeks, Washington’s relievers boast a 1.94 ERA and 20.1% strikeout minus walk rate.
It’s incredibly tough to get an accurate read on this game, but if I were forced to bet on this afternoon’s baseball matinée, I’d take the under. Neither lineup is particularly deadly against right-handed pitching, the defenses are trending up, and run production will be difficult in the later innings.
Ultimately, I’d tread lightly with this game.
The play: LEAN Under 8.5 Runs
Nationals vs. Phillies Game 2 Best Bet
TBD, NBCS-PHI
Probable pitchers: Josiah Gray (RHP) vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP)
While the Nationals haven’t hit right-handed pitching lately, they’ve been crushing southpaws.
The Nationals rank 12th in wRC+ against the side on the season (109) and fifth over the past month (131).
The Nats know how to smack around lefties.
Suarez is a very hittable left-handed pitcher.
He’s a mediocre starter who doesn’t excel in any area. All of his metrics are average or below average.
Meanwhile, Washington’s Josiah Gray is the best pitcher on the team.
The crown jewel of the Max Scherzer-Trea Turner deal, Gray scaled back the use of his four-seam this year and replaced it with a cutter. That was a wise decision since he allowed 24 homers and a .738 slugging on the former last season.
The result has been an 8% increase in his ground-ball rate, a 8% decrease in his HR/FB rate and a 1.5-run decrease in his ERA. He’s due for plenty of regression (4.50 expected ERA, 5.00 expected FIP), but he’s taken a step forward overall.
As mentioned, the Phillies lineup has struggled against righties all year, and this is a solid spot for Gray.
I don’t want to get involved with the bullpens, but this is an excellent situational spot for the Nationals in the first five innings.
If you blindly bet $100 on the Nationals F5 ML every time they’ve gone against a left-handed starting pitcher, you’d be up over $450, good for an 11.3%-ROI over a 40-game sample size.
Grab Washington’s F5 ML for Game 2 at +170 on Caesars Sportsbook. Between Gray, Suarez and the positive split for Washington, this is a no-brainer.
The play: Nationals F5 ML (+170)
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