MLB Futures: Betting and examining the NL East through 40 games

The quarter-point of the MLB season has come and gone. Every team has now played 40 games. The sample is big enough to draw meaningful conclusions about all 30 teams.

The Mets are third in baseball in runs per game. They are 14th in xwOBA, 22nd in hard-hit rate, and 27th on barrel rate. Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill are injured. The Mets have been very good at the plate in clutch situations.

The defending world champions rank 21st with 4.1 runs scored per game. The Braves are sixth-worst in chase rate and worst swinging-strike rate. They also have positive regression coming in the clutch-hitting metrics.

Zach Eflin has a 2.26 xERA heading into Saturday. He has the highest swinging-strike rate of his career and the lowest hard-hit rate. EFLin doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he just struck out 12 in seven innings against the Dodgers.

The Miami Marlins are 6-14 in one-run games this season. The team's pitching staff remains elite, but the lineup is not encouraging.

Erick Fedde is the only starter with an xERA under 5.00 this season. The rest of the starters have been bad. The humidor at Nationals Park is playing bigger than usual.