NBA picks: Celtics vs. Heat prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Thursday, Jan. 25

Rivals Week in the NBA continues Thursday when the Boston Celtics (34-10) visit the Miami Heat (24-20) in a rematch of the last two Eastern Conference Finals series. The Celtics come into this matchup on a two-game winning streak, while the Heat are on four-game losing skid. This is also the second night of a back-to-back set for Miami. These teams met once earlier this year, with the Celtics winning 119-111 at home.

Boston is clean on the day-to-day injury front. We’ll see how the Heat manage their players on the second night of a back-to-back, including new acquisition Terry Rozier. He played 29 minutes in Wednesday’s loss to the Grizzlies.

The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 224. Boston is -298 on the moneyline while Miami is +240.

Celtics vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Heat +7.5

The Celtics are 9-12-2 ATS as the road team this season, while the Heat are 8-13 ATS as the home team. They are also 0-4 ATS as a home underdog, and 1-3-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back set. Boston is 8-7-1 ATS with a rest advantage, while Miami is 8-4-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

I think the Celtics will be able to win this game, but I don’t believe they’ll be able to run away with this one. I like the Heat to hang tough at home and at least cover the spread.

Over/Under: Under 224

Boston is actually 22-22 to the over this season despite ranking fourth in points per game this season. The Celtics have gone under their totals in the last five games. The Heat are 18-26 to the over on the season and 11-10 to the over as the home team. They have gone under their totals in seven straight contests. I like the under to hit on this number tonight.