NBA Win Total Odds & Picks: How to Bet Cavaliers, Bulls and More Central Division Teams
Action Network Senior NBA writer Matt Moore previews the Central division. He explains his betting approach to teams in the Southwest, Southeast and Northwest divisions. He also explains why he's not betting on each team in this division and gives his picks.
The market overreacted to negative momentum and overpaid for the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are not as good as the market expected them to be. The Knicks are a better team than the Bulls, but the gap between them is not that big.
Chicago is second league-wide in the difference between their actual wins (46) and their expected wins at 5.6. Teams at the 80th percentile in expected win over-performance have gone 12-9-1 (55%) to the over.
The Bulls have three top-50 players and a good amount of depth. They are expected to be "not bad, a little above average"
Cleveland Cavaliers are currently 47.5 points behind the Chicago Bulls. The Cavs had great value at open at 41. 5, but the jump between 42.0 and 43.
The teams that were in the 80th percentile in outperforming their win total are 24-20-1 to the under the next season over the last 10 years.
The market has overreacted to the hype surrounding the Cavaliers.
Detroit Pistons have a 29.5 win total. The preseason has shown that their offense is bad. The market agrees and has pushed their win number up to 29 after opening at 26.
The teams with a win total of 7-7 or more than their actual win count won 10-4 over the last 10 years.
The team is struggling. They might be able to pull out of it by the end of the year.
The Bucks are a regular-season wins machine. They have to focus on health and going to Abu Dhabi for preseason. They are stacked with arguably the best player in the league. The Bucks have a 50-plus win total.
The NBA's win total above 50 is a key number. Teams with a win above that number are 31-16-1 to the under overall at 64.5% over the last ten seasons.
The Bucks are a solid title bet. The under on their conference seeding at 3.5 (-120) is a better bet than the total.
Indiana Pacers are 23.5 points behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. The team is good on offense but terrible on defense.
The last 10 years, teams who won 27 games and had a win total of 27 or fewer the following season are 11-6 to the over (65%).
The Pacers are good in one area of the game, but they may not be worth a bet.
