North Carolina vs Florida State Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

North Carolina's disappointing season is hitting must-win time if it hopes to grab a March Madness bid. Gaining some momentum and against an outclassed Florida State squad, our college basketball picks like an easy win.

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Dare I call it a must-win? It feels that way for North Carolina. If the Tar Heels want any hope of making the NCAA Tournament and replicating last season's run, they can't afford to slip up today against Florida State. 

Florida State has been easily the biggest disappointment in the ACC this season. But, with that said, the Noles are coming off easily their biggest win of the season, upsetting arch-rival Miami on a buzzer-beating shot. 

The Tar Heels are right on the NCAA Tournament bubble and, thus, cannot afford to lose tonight. In addition, they arrive at this game off of back-to-back wins, including one over Top 10 Virginia. 

What's the Best Bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Florida State on Monday, February 27.

North Carolina vs Florida State best odds

North Carolina vs Florida State picks and predictions

This is about as bad as situational spots get for Florida State. In all likelihood, the Noles salvaged whatever they could get out of its season with an emotional win over its rival. Now they turn around, two days later, against a team fighting for its tournament life. Give me that team. 

It looks like Pete Nance is fully healthy. After some back issues have clearly bothered his performances throughout the season, he looked 100% when he scored 22 points against Virginia on Saturday. That's a big deal for North Carolina's offense. It's an even bigger one in this matchup. 

One of the many places that Florida State has struggled to defend this season is against cutting actions. It's allowed 63% shooting on cutters, which I don't think I need to tell anyone is beyond awful. Nance is one of the best cutters on the North Carolina team; factoring in usage, he’s the best cutter by numbers. Nance has been used on 25% of the Tar Heels’ cutting sets this season, scoring on over 65% of them. That's an excellent thing in this matchup for North Carolina, particularly against a Florida State defense that ranks second-to-last in the ACC defending cutters, allowing 1.2 points per possession. 

Another spot where North Carolina has an advantage? Where they typically do — in the post. Armando Bacot should be able to have his way against Florida State's defense tonight. That's a new issue for the Noles, as they are typically known for elite rim protection and athletes that defend the painted area well. That's just not been the case this year, though. Florida State allows close to 50% shooting on post-ups, and, as you might expect, North Carolina has the most effective post-up offense in the ACC.

There are just too many offensive edges that the Heels have in this matchup. But, this time of year, I like to bet on teams that can do two things: Find multiple ways to score and talented guards. North Carolina will have many ways to consistently score tonight, and unless you've been living under a rock, you know how dangerous guards Caleb Love or RJ Davis can be. 

My best bet: North Carolina -7.5 (-112 at Pinnacle)

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North Carolina vs Florida State spread analysis

My projections have this as a 13-point win for North Carolina. It's a heavy edge against oddsmakers' numbers. However, it's so much of one that I'm considering even looking at some alternate spreads for this matchup. 

There's a decent chance that North Carolina can blow this one open, and if they do, I want to make sure I'm in a good position from a value perspective. This is another way to say I'm a big fan of our Best Bet.

I went through a few advantages for North Carolina in this matchup and barely mentioned its guard play — that's pretty telling. Given the previous matchup advantages, I'll consider playing prop Overs for Bacot or Nance if I don't hit the alternate spread bets.

North Carolina vs Florida State Over/Under analysis

A slight lean to the Over here, but my investments in North Carolina will likely keep me away from a side here. 

I see around 73 possessions here, with North Carolina cracking 80 points, so It'll be up to Florida State if it can do its part. With that said, the Under has been relatively trendy in the Tar Heels' recent games. All of the past four games they’ve played after an ATS win have gone Under.

In addition, six of the past seven games played after a straight-up win have gone Under. On the other hand, Florida State has seen a ton of Over action, as four straight games have gone Over for the Noles'. Those contrasting trends illustrate the difficulties of this handicap. 

North Carolina vs Florida State betting trend to know

The favorite is 8-3-2 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Florida State.