Yankees vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds
It had the potential to be a great series, but the Atlanta Braves have blitzed the New York Yankees into submission outscoring them 16-3 over the first two games. Our MLB expert is calling for a similar result tonight in the finale.
The Atlanta Braves will look to complete a three-game sweep at home when they host the New York Yankees on Wednesday night and the MLB odds suggest they have a great opportunity to do so.
Atlanta (77-42) has virtually clinched a playoff spot, and holds a 12.5-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. The Yankees (60-60) have dropped four straight games and have fallen 6.5 games out of the wild card race in the American League.
New York has never quite clicked this year, and is now in danger of becoming completely irrelevant in the AL playoff race. We’ll discuss whether the team has any chance of turning things around today in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Braves on August 16.
Yankees vs Braves odds
Yankees vs Braves predictions
The Atlanta Braves have arguably been the best team in baseball over the past two seasons, beginning with their World Series title in 2021. There’s no real argument about it at the moment, either: Atlanta has the best record in the majors, the best run differential in MLB, and their World Series odds make them the consensus favorite.
That’s a position the New York Yankees used to find themselves in on a nearly annual basis. Yet the Bronx Bombers are now at .500, and could easily fall below that mark on Wednesday as they come into today’s game as a substantial underdog. From here, things will only get tougher for New York as it attempts to navigate a grueling schedule against superior AL East rivals.
The Yankees have now lost seven of nine, and their season feels like it is on the verge of completely falling apart. That means New York needs a win badly on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the Yankees aren’t set up for success tonight.
For starters, New York still hasn’t announced a probable starter for Wednesday’s game. It appears that Randy Vasquez will most likely get the ball, though that’s still unclear as of early afternoon. Vasquez has been excellent in the first three starts of his career, showing up with the MLB squad about once a month before bouncing back down to spend most of his time with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Vasquez’s major league success might be a product of a small sample size. The 24-year-old is certainly ahead of schedule, but has struggled to a 4.76 ERA at the Triple-A level. Now, he will have to test his skills against the best lineup in baseball. The Braves are a tough matchup even for the most seasoned pitchers in the game, so we can’t expect too much from Vasquez tonight – if he gets the ball at all.
The Braves are going with the opposite approach on Wednesday. Trusted veteran Charlie Morton will take the hill as Atlanta looks to finish off the sweep. Morton continues to put up strong numbers even in his 39-year-old season, posting a 3.71 ERA in 128.2 innings over 23 starts so far this year. Morton is also coming off five shutout innings against the New York Mets.
I expect Morton to post another good start against a struggling New York team on Wednesday. No matter who the Yankees start, be it Vasquez or someone else, it’s unlikely they will do much to slow down a Braves lineup that has had its way in the first two games of this series.
While a moneyline bet on Atlanta looks extremely safe here, I’m going to push for even more value. Let’s take the Braves on the run line in a game they should easily win at home to send the Yankees under .500 for the year.
My best bet: Braves -1.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Yankees vs Braves same-game parlay
Braves -1.5
Over 9.5 runs
Morton 5+ strikeouts
With my prediction of complete dominance by the Braves tonight, it’s easy to put together an interested same-game parlay for this contest. That begins by taking Atlanta to cover the 1.5-run spread, something I expect them to easily accomplish.
Next, we’ll take the Over at the standard line of 9.5 runs. The Braves are the highest-scoring team in the majors, and are likely to face a struggling Triple-A starter tonight. While Vasquez has pitched well in his limited MLB appearances, I’m skeptical that he can slow down Atlanta’s lineup. The Yankees should be able to push at least a couple runs across the plate as well, so the Over feels like a good addition to our parlay.
Finally, I’ll take Morton to pick up at least five strikeouts tonight. While Morton’s strikeout numbers are down lately, he has struck out at least five batters in 17 of his 23 starts this year, making this a relatively safe way to round out our SGP.
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Yankees vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves opened as -212 favorites for tonight’s game. The consensus line is now closer to Atlanta -220, though you can still get the Braves at -210 at some sites. The best moneyline number I found on the Yankees was +185, with most sites posting New York at +180.
The Braves continue to outpace expectations, and have won more than 10 units on the moneyline this year. The Yankees haven’t been able to make a profit for bettors, and are down six units in 2023.
As I’ve already discussed, the Braves deserve to be massive favorites tonight over a Yankees team that is struggling to even keep its head above water. I’m a little wary of paying -210 to back Atlanta, however, which is why I’d rather take the fairly generous odds we can get on the run line instead.
The total for tonight’s contest opened at 10 runs. That remains the consensus Over/Under, though some sites have dropped the number to 9.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. I’ve seen +100 on the Over at 10 runs, or you can get the standard -110 on the Under at other books.
The Braves have been the highest-scoring team in the majors this year, and the Over has gone 65-52 in their games as a result. The Yankees have generally played to the Under, which has a 61-54 mark in their contests in 2023.
If you can get a fair number on the Over at 9.5 runs, then that is my lean here. Morton isn’t exactly a dominant pitcher, meaning the Yankees should pick up a couple runs while watching the Braves run away with tonight’s game. However, I’m a bit more skeptical of betting this game at a flat 10 runs, and would just choose not to bet on that number.
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Trend to know
The Braves are 5-1 on the moneyline in their last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Braves
Yankees vs Braves game info
Starting pitchers
Randy Vasquez (2-1, 1.90 ERA): While the 24-year-old Vasquez has spent most of the season in Triple-A, he has shined in his handful of appearances for the Yankees this year. However, there may be some smoke and mirrors in that small sample, as Vasquez’s FIP is a hefty 5.11 over his first 19 MLB innings. In his last appearance, Vasquez gave up two runs on three hits over 3 2/3 innings of relief work against the Miami Marlins on August 11.
Charlie Morton (11-10, 3.71 ERA): Now in his 16th major league season, Morton continues to be a solid regular season pitcher with a track record of postseason success. At age 39, Morton seems to be losing some command, as he has allowed 4.5 walks per nine innings in 2023, pushing his WHIP to 1.461 – the highest number for him since 2011. In his last outing, Morton threw five shutout innings, giving up just three hits – but seven walks – to the New York Mets.
