New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

The New York Yankees (34-23) and Seattle Mariners (28-27) play the finale of a 3-game set Wednesday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 2-0

The Yankees have come to town swinging with 10-4 and 10-2 victories Monday and Tuesday. They have won 4 in a row and 7 of 10 to climb 5 games out of the AL East lead. SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa had a big game Tuesday with 4 hits and 4 RBIs. He is amid a 14-for-34 streak for a .412 clip

The Mariners have looked like cannon fodder in the series, but they’re still 6-4, 11-9 and 17-13 over the last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. They also went 4-2 against the Yankees last season. Wednesday is a new day as they try to avoid a sweep.

Yankees at Mariners projected starters

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP George Kirby

Schmidt (2-5, 5.58 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 50 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K, vs. Baltimore Orioles Thursday
• Has not faced Seattle before
• Is 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA, 1.90 WHIP in 4 away starts this year vs. 1-4 with a 4.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 7 home starts.

Kirby (5-4, 3.43 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, a league-leading 0.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 63 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
• Has not faced Yankees before
• Is 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 5 home starts this year vs. 2-2 , 2.34 ERA, 0.98 WHIP on the road

Yankees at Mariners odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

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Yankees at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Mariners 4

You have to love the variance in baseball. The Yankees have outscored the M’s 20-6 and pounded out 30 hits, and they’re +115 underdogs in Game 3. Schmidt’s 5.58 ERA is a little deceiving because he has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 4 of 5 starts, but that 5th start has 7 ER next to his name.

I’m taking the value with the YANKEES +115.

As mentioned, the M’s were 4-2 against New York last year, and half of those wins were of the 1-run variety. The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball with a 2.90 ERA, and Seattle isn’t far behind at 5th with a 3.24.

Giving the Yankees a run of insurance here isn’t priced out for me. Take the YANKEES +1.5 (-190) to win a HALF-UNIT.

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It’s bound to be a chilly, 63-degree evening in the Northwest with an 8-mph breeze coming in from left-center. That’s really the only factor in the Under’s favor. The Over is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings between the clubs and 6-2-1 in the last 9 in Seattle. Schmidt is bad on the road, and Kirby isn’t as good at home for some reason. That 7.5 number looks like a cakewalk.

Take the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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