Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
The Seattle Mariners (29-30) and San Diego Padres (28-32) open up a 2-game set Tuesday at Petco Park. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Seattle won the series 3-1 in 2022
Seattle was swept by the Texas Rangers over the weekend and has dropped 5 of its last 6 games. The Mariners gave up a combined 28 runs in the last 2 games in the Texas heat. They are 9-11 over their last 20 outings and have fallen to 10 games out in the AL West.
The Padres continue to be stuck in neutral at 5-5 over the last 10 games. They have really struggled to string together victories at 9-11 and 12-18 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively. The root of their problem begins offensively, where they are 24th in runs/9 (4.18), 29th in BA (.222) and 23rd in OPS (.696).
Mariners at Padres projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Gilbert (3-3, 4.08 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 64 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K vs. New York Yankees last Tuesday
- 2 career starts vs. San Diego: 1-1, 1.74 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 6 K in 10 1/3 IP
Musgrove (3-2, 4.71 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 10-1 road win vs. the Miami Marlins Wednesday
- 4 career starts vs. Seattle: 1-1, 7.58 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 14 K in 19 IP
Mariners at Padres odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.
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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Mariners 4
In a small sample size, Musgrove has a 7.43 ERA at home over 3 starts as he tries to find his groove following a late start to the season. However, he has given up just 1 ER over 12 1/3 innings across his last 2 starts — both on the road. Meanwhile, Gilbert is coming off a rough start and has yielded at least 2 ER in 8 straight starts and 9 of 11.
The Padres have the edge in the bullpen with the 3rd-best ERA at 3.11 while Seattle is 9th with a 3.68 ERA. This Padres team has to start hitting at some point, and Seattle has lost 4 straight road games.
LEAN PADRES (-135).
I prefer the Mariners’ side here as they’re 15-12 on the RL on the road, and San Diego is just 13-18 at home. However, I’m not willing to pay -185 for it.
I like the Over in the First 5 here as Gilbert is allowing at least 2 ER in every start, and Musgrove has been shaky at home. Take the OVER 4 TOTAL RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125).
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I like the Over for the full game, too. It’s slated to be a little cool at 64 degrees with an 8 mph gust blowing out to right-center. The Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings overall. I think 7.5 is being too kind to the pitchers Tuesday.
Take the OVER 7.5 (-115).
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