Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match
Newcastle, coming off a comprehensive demolition of Manchester United in the Carabao Cup midweek, host Premier League title hopefuls Arsenal in league play on Saturday in the late kickoff.
The Magpies roasted a hapless United side by a 3-0 scoreline, ramping up the pressure on Erik ten Hag and seeing their way into the quarterfinals of the competition.
Arsenal had a very different midweek experience, disappointingly bounced from the competition by West Ham by a 3-1 score as Mikel Arteta rotated his side heavily to keep first-team players fresh. It wasn't even as close as the scoreline indicated, unable to put together anything up front until finally scoring with the final kick of the match.
There's little room for error at the top of the Premier League table for both sides here, as Arsenal trail leaders Tottenham by two points while defending champions Manchester City also sit level with the Gunners in that regard.
For Newcastle, who sit sixth, they are attempting to avoid the gap above them increasing any further, as fifth-place Aston Villa reside a whopping five points clear, threatening to leave the Magpies well adrift if they gain any further ground.
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Newcastle vs Arsenal match facts
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023
- Kickoff Time: 5:30 p.m. local (1:30 p.m. ET / 10:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle, England)
- Official: Stuart Atwell
- Last meeting: Newcastle 0-2 Arsenal (May 7, 2023 | Premier League)
Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Arsenal (+155)
- Score prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Arsenal
Newcastle have generated the most expected goals in the Premier League through the first 10 games of the season, but that's a bit of fools gold. Their schedule has been extremely soft, as they've only played two of the top five defensive sides in the league and have beaten up on the most porous.
In contrasts, they were completely thwarted by Man City back in mid-August, and had only slightly more joy against Liverpool or Brentford. In the Champions League, they mustered a disappointing offensive output against Borussia Dortmund, whose calling card is not defensive prowess.
With games coming up against Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham across the next six weeks, they will be tested up front. While the Gunners may have looked a bit disinterested against West Ham midweek in their early EFL Cup exit, they will be back to their best here and make life difficult for the Magpies who are missing their most dangerous goal scorer in Alexander Isak.
Newcastle vs Arsenal best bet
- Pick: Most goals in second half
- Odds: +100 (DraftKings)
While neither of these two clubs boast significant attacking improvement or defensive solidity from one half to the other, for whatever reason, Newcastle and Arsenal have a propensity for opening things up after the break when matching up. Incredibly, seven of the last nine meetings between these clubs has been scoreless at the break, with only one of those finishing goalless across the 90 minutes.
Newcastle lead the Premier League in first half goals, but as mentioned previously, many of those came against relegation-threatened clubs, while it took them until after the break to breach both Man City (in the EFL Cup), Brentford, and West Ham.
Lastly, while Arsenal seem to have similar halftime splits from a shooting standpoint, a closer look indicates they've taken time to get going in front of goal, finishing very poorly through the first 45 minutes of league games this year (7 goals on 7.88 xG / 5.10 xGOT) before picking up the slack after halftime (16 goals on 11.09 xG / 13.95 xGOT).
Newcastle vs Arsenal prop bet
- Pick: Gabriel Martinelli 2+ shots on target
- Odds: +360 (FanDuel)
OR
- Pick: Leandro Trossard 2+ shots on target
- Odds: +550 (FanDuel)
While Newcastle are a strong defensive side, they've shown some small frailties this season compared to their dominance at the back last year. Whoever starts on the left wing for Arsenal, either Gabriel Martinelli or Leandro Trossard, should have open space to operate in front of goal.
Bukayo Saka commands extreme attention on Arsenal's right, and that comes at a cost to the opponent. Thus, you won't be shocked to learn that Gabriel Martinelli is second in the Premier League with 7.13 touches in the penalty area per 90 minutes, behind only Diogo Jota of Liverpool.
Both Martinelli and the minutes-starved Trossard have been good with their opportunities up front of late, as they have combined to put seven of eight shots on frame since the start of October. While it's been tougher without Saka on the field, with the England star requiring rest to recover fitness, his return should open things back up.
Saka will have to deal with the defensive-minded Dan Burn on his side, but there is space in behind the overlapping Kieran Trippier, and whoever of Martinelli or Trossard earns the starting spot will have far more room to operate, especially with Eddie Nketiah filling in for Gabriel Jesus.
Newcastle vs Arsenal flier bet
- Pick: Arsenal to score a penalty
- Odds: +450 (DraftKings)
Arsenal have been awarded the most penalties in the Premier League through the first 10 games of the season, drawing a massive six spot-kicks and depositing all of them.
Meanwhile, Newcastle haven't conceded a single penalty to this point in league play. So what gives? Well, Newcastle have conceded a not-insignificant 119 fouls this season, good for joint-fourth in the Premier League, the most of anyone who have yet to concede a penalty. Expand that to all competitions across Europe, and their 156 fouls is 15th amongst Big 5 leagues, and behind only Cadiz and Barcelona amongst teams who have not conceded a penalty.
It's time for Newcastle to regress to the mean. Arsenal are exceptional at winning penalties, with Fabio Vieira and Eddie Nketiah each drawing two so far, making this a great longshot play.
