NFL Divisional Playoffs predictions: Four prop bets for this weekend
Our six NFL wild card game predictions last week didn’t exactly deliver the profits we desired (just two winners in the bunch).
However, we went 4-1 with our Saturday and Sunday props selections, then split our four Cowboys-Bucs recommendations Monday night.
Now let’s see if we can build on that solid 6-3 overall record with another quartet of NFL Divisional Playoffs props — one for each of this weekend’s games.
Odds updated as of 4 p.m. ET.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs prop: Patrick Mahomes total passing yards
Odds: 308.5 yards, Over -106/Under -129 (at Caesars Sportsbook)
Prediction: Over
Might as well start by praising the Jacksonville Jaguars’ secondary (since that rarely happens).
Although the Jags had the NFL’s fifth-worst pass defense based on total yards surrendered, they have allowed just one 300-yard passer since their Week 11 bye (a span of eight games).
During this run, only two quarterbacks — Detroit’s Jared Goff in Week 13 and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert in last Saturday’s wild card game — eclipsed 256 passing yards.
And thus ends the praise. Because none of the QBs that Jacksonville has contained recently are named Patrick Mahomes.
The NFL’s soon-to-be MVP led the league with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns — and he did that after his most dangerous wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) was traded in the offseason.
Mahomes topped 320 yards passing in 10 of 17 games overall, including five of his last six at home. One of those games at Arrowhead Stadium? It was against Jacksonville in Week 10.
All Mahomes did that day was go 26-for-35 for 331 yards and four touchdowns.
This prop bet, of course, correlates with our Jaguars vs. Chiefs preview — which is that Kansas City will roll in this game.
If we’re right about that, we should be right about this. Because the Chiefs don’t do a lot of running. (Why would they when they have Mahomes?)
And as much as it struggles against the pass, Jacksonville is actually solid against the run (ranked 12th at 114.8 yards per game — although K.C. did go off for 155 rushing yards in Week 10).
We probably will need Mahomes to do a lot of damage in the first half, as the Chiefs will sit on the ball after halftime if they’re up big.
But we trust the best quarterback in the land to get us Over this number that’s offered at Caesars Sportsbook.
Giants vs. Eagles prop: Miles Sanders total rushing yards
Odds: 66.5 yards, Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
Prediction: Over
Unless the opponent is the Minnesota Vikings, the Giants’ defense absolutely cannot stop the run.
New York held the Vikings to 61 rushing yards in last week’s wild card upset victory and 83 yards in a last-second Week 15 loss in Minneapolis.
In it’s other 16 games, New York has surrendered more than 100 rushing yards 13 times.
Now guess which team ran over the Giants the most this season? Yep, Philadelphia.
Back in their 44-28 Week 13 victory in New York, the Eagles rumbled for 253 yards (their second-best rushing output of the season). Sanders did the bulk of the damage, picking up a season-high 144 yards on 17 carries.
The Eagles “only” gained 135 yards on the ground in the Week 18 rematch in Philly. And Sanders accounted for just 33 on 11 carries. But Sanders was dealing with a knee injury he suffered two weeks earlier in Dallas.
He practiced in full this week and is not listed on Philadelphia’s injury report.
Speaking of injuries: As we noted in our Giants vs. Eagles preview, it’s unclear if Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts has completely recovered from the shoulder sprain he suffered a little more than a month ago.
Even if Hurts is 100 percent (unlikely), Eagles coach Nick Sirianni would be foolish not to warn his mobile QB to be careful before deciding to dart upfield and put the shoulder in harm’s way.
All it takes is Hurts landing awkwardly just once, and Philadelphia will be in big trouble.
So we expect to see Sanders tote the rock a lot on Saturday night — and to have a lot of success. Maybe not 144 yards of success like in Week 11, but enough to cash this BetMGM prop.
Bengals vs. Bills prop: Will Trey Hendrickson record a sack?
Odds: Yes +180/No -235 (at FanDuel)
Prediction: Yes
Rolling the ol’ dice with this one, because Hendrickson has just two sacks in his last six games. Both came in the season finale against Baltimore.
For the season, the Bengals’ defensive end has just eight sacks after registering 31 in the previous two years combined (13.5 in 2020; career-high 14 in the 2021 regular season, plus another 3.5 in the playoffs).
And this season’s eight sacks came in just five games (including a half-sack against Cleveland in Week 8).
But we’ve got a strong feeling Hendrickson will get his rush on Sunday afternoon. Because Bills quarterback Josh Allen hit the deck 33 times in 16 regular-season games.
That’s more than Houston’s Davis Mills (31), Las Vegas’ Derek Carr (27) and Detroit’s Jared Goff (23).
Then in last week’s wild-card game against Miami at home, Allen was dropped seven times.
Going back to Week 6, opposing defenses have recorded a sack of Allen in 12 consecutive games (with multiple sacks nine times in the last 11 contests).
Although it can be a crapshoot trying to predict which pass rusher will plant a quarterback into the turf, there isn’t much doubt that Allen is going down at least once.
And our money is on Hendrickson, whose eight sacks led Cincinnati (1.5 more than bookend rusher Sam Hubbard).
Cowboys vs. 49ers prop: Brock Purdy total interceptions
Odds: 0.5 interceptions, Over -110/Under -110 (at BetMGM)
Prediction: Over
Brock Purdy was flawless in his first career playoff start last week — at least, that’s what the stat sheet says, as he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions (for the second straight game).
Here’s what the stat sheet doesn’t say: Purdy had some deer-in-headlights moments in the first half. And if the Seattle Seahawks’ defenders were more alert and/or didn’t have hands of stone, they would’ve picked off Purdy at least once.
Now known the world over as Mr. Irrelevant, Purdy has thrown exactly one interception in three of seven games since taking over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He also tossed one in mop-up duty in a blowout loss to Kansas City in Week 7.
Still, four interceptions in 170 pass attempts isn’t bad at all for a rookie seventh-rounder.
And while Purdy deserves most of the credit for playing mostly mistake-free football, some of the kudos go to Niners coach Kyle Shananhan for his smart play calling.
All that said, we’re betting on at least one miscue Sunday night. And we’re making that bet in large part for this reason: Even though the Cowboys had just 16 interceptions this year (after an NFL-high 26 a year ago), they got one from Tom Brady last week.
Why is that a big deal? Because it gave Dallas at least one pick (and nine total) in seven straight games.
Whether it’s a bad read, a tipped pass or simply a bad throw, we expect Prudy to run that streak to eight in a row.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
