NFL Player Props Week 7: Predictions, Picks for Thursday
Jon Metler and Neil Parker, betting analysts at Sportsbook Review, have been on an impressive run with their top NFL player prop picks. As they seek to build upon their current 14-4 streak in Week 7, all of their selections are backed by the NFL odds offered by our best NFL prop betting sites.
Neil Parker has been cooking up winners left and right in the NFL passing yards market, and in Week 7, I've decided to join the party with a bet on an Alabama quarterback for Sunday Night Football.
The picks are red hot right now, as we are on a 14-4 run since Week 3 and are up 9.30 units in that timeframe.
We kick things off with a player prop for Thursday Night Football, and if you're concerned about the status of Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, don't be. In betting, uncertainty brings opportunity, and we're using indicators from the market to help us locate edges amidst this uncertainty with Lawrence.
Jaguars vs. Saints predictions and Jaguars-Saints NFL player props.
Here are our best NFL player props for Week 7 (odds via ourbest NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 7
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NFL player props for Week 7: Thursday Night Football
Christian Kirk Over 51.5 receiving yards (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
There's a big unknown hovering over this Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jaguars and Saints, and it's whether Lawrence will be starting at quarterback for the Jaguars. We've seen the spread move from Saints -3 to Saints -1, which is an indicator that Lawrence is trending toward playing.
I'm targeting Kirk's receiving yards prop because I think whether Lawrence plays or doesn't play, this bet remains live. If it's Lawrence on a bad knee, we should see the Jaguars looking to get the ball out quickly, and Kirk averages a modest 8.2 yards per target, while Calvin Ridley averages 12.3 yards per target. If it's C.J. Beathard under center, the strategy should remain relatively the same as the Jaguars will look to get him easy throws that are quick.
Kirk is projected to have 61.2 receiving yards against the Saints, which means we can price the Over 51.5 receiving yards at -122, and this bet is showing a positive expected value of 3%.
Since this total opened, we have seen it climb to 52.5 at most of our best sports betting sites, and FanDuel has its total for Kirk's receiving yards trading at 54.5. To maximize your edge, make sure you place your bet at BetRivers, which is one yard lower than the rest of the market and is offering comparable juice.
Up to a $500 Second Chance Bet
Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | )
NFL player props for Week 7: Sunday Night Football
Tua Tagovailoa Over 273.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Outside of the quarterback and only a handful of other players, injuries to one specific player won't really move the needle when it comes to the spread. What does move the needle is a cluster of injuries to one positional group, and the Eagles are experiencing a cluster of injuries in their secondary.
The Eagles' top defensive back, Darius Slay, missed the Eagles' Week 6 game due to injury, and while the Eagles are hopeful Slay will return in Week 7, he definitely won't be 100%. Safety Reed Blankenship and cornerback Bradley Roby are also on the injury report.
Given the injuries in the Eagles' secondary, their coaching staff may devise a plan to contain Tyreek Hill. But do they possess the right personnel in the secondary to handle Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the entire Dolphins passing attack? I doubt it. If there was one head coach in the NFL that I would expect to develop an offensive game plan to exploit these injuries in the Eagles' secondary, it is Mike McDaniel.
Tagovailoa is projected to have 287.3 passing yards against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, which means we can price the Over 273.5 passing yards at -137, yet we can buy it at bet365 at -110.
You will want to do your shopping on Tagovailoa at bet365 because they have the lowest juice (-110) on the total of 273.5 passing yards, and the market is telling us that you should have a sense of urgency when placing this bet. Tagovailoa opened with a total of 270.5 passing yards late on Wednesday night, and it wasted no time moving up to 273.5. FanDuel is even higher than the rest of the market at 276.5.
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Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | )
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