NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 7: Chargers Will Hang Tough Again At Arrowhead

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19 October 2023

NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 7: Chargers Will Hang Tough Again At Arrowhead

We're diving into the Los Angeles Chargers’ recent success against the Kansas City Chiefs and analyzing why it makes them one of our top NFL upset picks for Week 7 based on the best NFL odds.

Parity continues to reign in the NationalFootball League as the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles were beaten in Week 6, leaving no undefeated teams in the NFL by the midway point ofOctober.

Here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 7 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a1-to-5-star scale).

NFLupset picks: Week 7

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NFL upsetpredictions

Colts ML vs. Browns (+125via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Indianapolis Colts are coming offtheir worst loss of the season, a 37-20 defeat at Jacksonville that wasn’t aslopsided as the final score indicated. In fact, the Colts outgained the Jaguarsby more than 100 yards and held Jacksonville to less than three yards percarry, but they were undone by four turnovers that consistently set the Jags upwith good field position.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns pulled off one of the NFL’s biggest upsets of the season last week, beating the SanFrancisco 49ers as double-digit underdogs. However, as much credit as theBrowns’ defense deserves for shutting down San Francisco’s powerful attack,Cleveland also benefited from injuries to several key 49ers starters, a coupleof missed field goals, and inclement weather conditions.

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Rain and wind won’t be a factor on the indoorfield of Lucas Oil Stadium, placing more of a premium on the passing game. TheBrowns have averaged just 11 points per outing the last two weeks without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who might have to miss his third straight game due to a rotatorcuff injury.

Indy is also down to a second-stringquarterback with Gardner Minshew, but the Colts have still scored atleast 20 points in every game this season. That’s helped them pull off threeupset victories in their first six games, and they should be live for anotherone against the low-scoring Browns.

Chargers ML vs. Chiefs (+205 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even though the Los Angeles Chargersenter Week 7 below .500, not much separates them from being the lone unbeatenteam in the NFL. Their three losses have come by a combined eight points,nothing new for Chargers fans who have seen each of their team’s last fivedefeats come by a field goal or less, and its last eight losses decided by a singlepossession.

It’s also been a familiar start to theseason for the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won five straight following aone-point loss to Detroit in their season opener. However, Kansas City is winning differentlythan in years past. Patrick Mahomes and the offense have yet to get on track,scoring 23 points or less in four of their first six games, but the defense hasstepped up by holding all six of its opponents to 21 or fewer.

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L.A. has had no issues solving KansasCity’s defense in recent meetings between the AFC West rivals, scoring 27, 24,28, 30, and 38 points in the last five. The Chargers are also capable ofshutting down the Chiefs' running game, something they've relied on morethan usual lately due to a thin receiving corps.

Sure, the Chargers are playing on a shortweek after losing to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football, but theirfamiliarity with Kansas City should help them overcome having a bit less time toprepare.

The Chargers are 6-1-1 ATS in their lasteight games against Kansas City, winning two of those games outright and losingtwo of them in overtime. Look for them to give the Chiefs all they can handleonce again.

Vikings ML vs. 49ers (+250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

The 49ers’ 15-gameregular-season winning streak came to an end last Sunday with the 19-17 loss to the Browns. After Brock Purdy and the Niners’ offensefailed to crack the 30-point plateau for the first time in their last nineregular-season contests, many are expecting a bounce-back effort on Monday nightagainst the Minnesota Vikings.

However, that might not be aseasy as the seven-point spread suggests. San Francisco is suddenly dealing withsignificant injuries to several of its top offensive players, with running backChristian McCaffrey (oblique), wideout Deebo Samuel (shoulder), and offensive tackle TrentWilliams (ankle) all exiting last week's contest early.

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Purdy wasn’t very effective withoutMcCaffrey and Samuel at his disposal, completing less than half of his passesfor 125 yards, a touchdown, and an interception - the third time in five gamesthat Purdy has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes. The Niners also have concerns abouttheir kicking game after rookie Luke Moody missed a pair of kicks, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.

The Vikings have righted the ship afteran 0-3 start, beating the Chicago Bears 19-13 last week for their second win inthree games. Defense is helping the Vikes hang in games without star wideoutJustin Jefferson, allowing just 53 points during the three-game stretch andshowing signs of rapid improvement under first-year coordinator Brian Flores.

NFLupset picks made 10/18/2023 at 7:46 p.m. ET.