NFL Week 1 Odds, Lines and Spreads

Buccaneers Slim Road Choices

The Buccaneers have opened as the smallest favorites on the opening week slate at 1.5 points over the Cowyboys.

Two years ago, the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay following 20 years with the New England Patriots. The Buccaneers, though, were bounced from the playoffs last season by the Rams in their first postseason game.

Brady retired not long after that loss. He then reversed course and decided to come back for a 23 season at age 45 to pursue an eighth Super Bowl ring.

Defense figures to be the Cowboys’ strength for a change this season after they won the NFC East in 2021. Dallas had a league-high 34 takeovers on their way to the conference and a star emerged as linebacker Micah Parsons won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dak Prescott returns for his seventh season as the starting quarterback, but the Cowboys have questions about their receivers and offensive line.

Colts Big Favorites

The Indianapolis Colts are the biggest favorites on the board as 8.5-point road picks over the Houston Texans.

The Colts will have their sixth starting quarterback in as many seasons after trading with the Atlanta Falcons for Matt Ryan. Indianapolis hopes Ryan can provide the stability lacking at the position since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement just before the start of the 2019 season.

The Texans are on their third coach in three years following Lovie Smith’s promotion from defensive coordinator to replace David Culley. Houston is hoping quarterback Davis Mills is better in his second season after being thrust into a starting role early last season while Deshaun Wilson was sidelined by legal issues.

Highs and Lows

The largest total is the Chiefs vs Cardinals total at 53.5 points in Glendale. That is not a surprise with a matchup of dynamic quarterbacks in the desert between the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and Cardinals’ Kyler Murray.

The lowest over/under is the Browns vs Panthers total at 41 points in Charlotte. Both teams have quarterback issues with the Panthers trading with the Browns for Baker Mayfield, who was displaced following Cleveland’s trade with the Texans for Watson. However, Watson has been suspended for the first 11 games for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy and Jacoby Brissett is now the Browns’ QB1.

That’s Out of Line?

One line that seems a little off is the Panthers being favored by 2.5 points over the Browns. Brissett is a solid choice to replace Watson for Cleveland. Also, look for the public to fade the Panthers and the mercurial Mayfield, especially with him having the emotional baggage of facing his old team in his Carolina debut.

It seems somewhat odd that the Rams are underdogs at home even though the Bills are favorites to unseat them as champions this season. It’s easy to see the public jumping on the Rams as home dogs in the Week 1 NFL odds.