NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Avalanche vs. Ducks (April 9)

Avalanche vs. Ducks Odds

There is a Western Conference tilt for Sunday’s NHL nightcap on TNT, with the Pacific Division’s Anaheim Ducks hosting the Central Division’s Colorado Avalanche.

Absolutely dominating this matchup over the past couple of seasons, Colorado has won eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams, with all eight of those victories coming by at least a two-goal margin.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Avalanche vs. Ducks betting pick.

Colorado Avalanche

I’m going to keep this one short and sweet: The Avalanche are simply better than the Ducks in every facet of the game. The defending Stanley Cup champions are also still fighting for the top seed in the Central Division, so the effort will absolutely be there despite going against the tanking Ducks.

An elite team defensively, Colorado ranks fifth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing up this elite blue line is goaltender Alexandar Georgiev.

While the goaltending situation for Sunday’s game is not confirmed at the time of writing, we are starting to see teams utilize its starting netminders on each side of back-to-backs with just a few games left in the campaign. With a massive two points on the line for the Avs, I’d imagine they let Georgiev start both Saturday and Sunday.

Among starting goaltenders, Georgiev ranks 10th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60). The one knock on the Avs this season has been their offensive efficiency at even-strength, ranking just 18th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). However, that still ranks them 13 spots higher than Anaheim in that category.

Anaheim Ducks

Brace yourself for some heavy math. Since Colorado ranks 18th in xGF/60 and Anaheim ranks 31st, that means the Ducks are second-to-last in that key offensive metric. Surely, they can’t be worse defensively, right?

Well, as a matter of fact, they rank last in xGA/60. An absolute disaster both offensively and defensively, it is not shocking that Anaheim is among the three teams battling it out for last place in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes.

The Ducks continue to get throttled on a nightly basis, and there is no reason to believe this contest will go any differently. Goaltender Lukas Dostal is expected to get the nod for Anaheim on the second half of a back-to-back, and he should be a good fade candidate.

If he qualified, Dostal would rank in the bottom-half among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60.

Avalanche vs. Ducks Pick

It is certainly the chalkiest, most square pick one could make, but there is no reason to believe the Avs will not take care of business. As I mentioned earlier, the Avs have owned the recent head-to-head with the Ducks.

While it remains to be seen whether Georgiev starts for Colorado once again, it is worth noting that he is 4-0 against the Ducks in his career with a .915 SV% and 1.71 GAA. If Colorado goes with Jonas Johansson instead, that is also alright as he is 2-0 this season with a .932 SV% and 2.10 GAA.

Colorado is better offensively, defensively, behind the bench and in net — there’s no need to overthink this one.