Capitals vs Bruins Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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12 February 2023

Capitals vs Bruins Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

In his debut season in Washington, Darcy Kuemper has excellent but Boston's Linus Ullmark has been even better. With a pair of great goalies on Saturday, our Capitals vs. Bruins NHL picks are expecting a low-scoring affair.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There’s an exciting Eastern Conference tilt on Saturday afternoon, with the Atlantic Division’s Boston Bruins hosting the Metropolitan Division’s Washington Capitals. Boston continues to chase the regular season points record while Washington attempts to hang on to the first wild card spot.

Will the Bruins take care of business as large home favorites, or can the Capitals play spoiler on the road? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Capitals vs. Bruins on Saturday, February 11.

Capitals vs Bruins best odds

Capitals vs Bruins picks and predictions

The Capitals enter this contest amid a flurry of low-scoring contests, with six or fewer goals scored in eight of their last 12 games. A big reason for this stretch of low-scoring games is the play of goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who is projected to start between the pipes on Saturday.

Through 34 starts in the crease this season, Kuemper boasts a .915 save percentage (SV%) and 2.62 goals against average (GAA). Based on his metrics, regression should not be too much of an issue as Kuemper ranks in the top half among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

In front of the Caps’ netminder is an extremely underrated blue line. At 5-on-5, Washington ranks 12th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

Another reason for this recent stretch of low-scoring games is their stale offense as the Capitals rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Outside of Alex Ovechkin, not a single other skater has more than 13 goals for this uninspiring forward group.

This club certainly feels the absence of John Carlson and Tom Wilson, who both are expected to miss this contest. Another reason why Washington should struggle to score is that they will be going against the Vezina Trophy favorite, goaltender Linus Ullmark.

Through 33 appearances between the pipes this year, Ullmark is an absurd 26-4-1 with a .937 SV% and 1.90 GAA. Unsurprisingly, at 5-on-5, he ranks first among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60.

It certainly helps Ullmark that one of the stingiest blue lines in the league plays in front of him. At 5-on-5, Boston ranks third in the league in xGA/60.

Like the Capitals, the Bruins have been involved in many low-scoring affairs recently, with six or fewer total goals scored in eight of their last 11 games, a trend that is likely to continue in this matchup.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-135 at BetMGM)

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Capitals vs Bruins moneyline analysis

Ullmark’s exceptional play should continue Washington, a team he has fared well against over the last two seasons. Across that stretch, he is 3-1 with a .904 SV% and 2.77 GAA.

It is worth noting that, although Boston’s offense is due for regression, it still ranks higher than the Caps in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. In fact, the B’s are better than Washington offensively, defensively, and in net.

I am not taking a side in this game because I love the Under at 6.5. However, if I had to choose, it makes sense why Boston is such a long favorite as it should take care of business on home ice.

Capitals vs Bruins Over/Under analysis

My only concern with taking the Under in this contest is Boston’s offense. However, as I alluded to above, it is due for regression.

At 5-on-5, the Bruins rank second in the league in GF/60 but 12th in xGF/60. This regression is likely to hit against Washington’s strong blue line and stout netminder, reaffirming my stance on the Under in this matchup.