NL Central futures prediction: MLB odds, best bets for 2024 season

It sounds daft, but maybe if the 2023 MLB season had been a month longer, the Cincinnati Reds would have been real contenders. 

They missed the postseason by two games, but the Reds’ net was not only outperforming pre-season expectations; it was establishing themselves as one of the game’s most exciting and dynamic lineups of the coming era. 

Much of that was thanks to 6-foot-5 sensation Elly De La Cruz, who brought a wave of records to the Reds in his rookie season, including the fastest infield throw in history at 97.8 mph — a mark which he would break one month later with a 99.8 mph zipline to home plate. 

It wasn’t only De La Cruz’s arm that was tantalizing.

He recorded the third-highest exit velocity in the league (119.2 mph) and evinced himself as the fastest man in baseball, recording the highest sprint speed of the year at 30.5 feet per second.

Nick Krall hasn’t been as aggressive with offseason acquisitions as some had hoped he would be, but the Reds’ president of baseball operations is letting De La Cruz and the rest of the young core group blossom.

What he did tweak was a starting pitching rotation that ranked toward the bottom of the majors in ERA by adding Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. 

These are value signings; considering the market cost of this offseason’s top talent, it’s the best-case scenario to improve the rotation without sacrificing premium assets. The Reds relied too much on their bullpen last season. 

This way, they sustain flexibility in the payroll for future star re-signings like De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer.

The Reds ranked No. 17 overall in wRC+, but we have yet to see a full season in Cincinnati with a product of young players who were getting call-ups at various points throughout 2023. 

They stand out in the NL Central futures market, with the Cardinals perched as +140 favorites after a disastrous 71-91 season.

St. Louis was the preseason favorite last year, but age caught up along with a helpless bullpen. 

The additions of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn help fortify a staff that was starving on strikeouts, but it remains an elderly bunch. 

After clinching their third division title in five years, the Brewers shipped their best arm out of town.

Corbin Burnes, who ranked in the top 19 percentile in both xERA and xwOBA, was traded to Baltimore for prospects two weeks ago.

Beyond Freddy Peralta, this is a bare-boned staff. Milwaukee hasn’t been able to show face in any of its recent postseason appearances, getting squashed 2-0 in the wild-card round to Arizona last year. 

So it’s safe to say the front-office ambivalence speaks for itself in how less-than-significant improvements have been made throughout the winter. 

The Cubs also subtracted a key piece at the top of their rotation in Marcus Stroman, but got potential compensation with Shota Imanaga’s arrival from Japan.

They were an adequate offense with Cody Bellinger’s revival season, but the free-agent slugger might not even be there in April. 

Chicago’s problems were primarily bullpen issues that contributed to missing the playoffs by one game. Craig Counsell steps in as the highest-paid manager in baseball, but it’s fix-up projects like these that leave the Cubs’ outlook still a tad hazy despite +240 odds to clinch the division. 

Pittsburgh made some adjustments to its bullpen, but likely will remain the punching bag of the NL Central.

It’s a division that projects to be a tight race, leaving the Reds with the best market value given their trend toward positive regression. 

As long as the pitching depth can keep the team anchored, Cincinnati’s budding lineup has a full 162 games to play tomorrow-style baseball. 

The Play: Reds to win NL Central (+410, FanDuel)