SMU prediction: Mustangs gear up for North Texas team aiming to spoil historic run

SMU vs. North Texas

When: 8 p.m. Saturday, Ford Stadium in University Park

Records: SMU (7-2 overall; 5-0 AAC); North Texas (3-6, 1-4)

Last Matchup: SMU beat North Texas 48-10 on Sept. 3, 2022 in Denton.

Sports Roundup

TV: ESPN2

What’s at stake?

The last time SMU won more than five consecutive conference games was in 1981 when the Mustangs won seven consecutive Southwest Conference games en route to an 11-0-1 finish that included a 7-3 win over Pitt in the Cotton Bowl. The Mustangs finished 7-0-1 in the SWC. The only blemish was a 17-17 tie with Arkansas in the regular-season finale. SMU finished No. 2 in the final AP Top 25 poll.

Why is any of this relevant? SMU has won five consecutive American Athletic Conference games and is seeking its sixth in a row for the first time in four decades. History is on the line on the Hilltop, not to mention SMU’s hopes for an AAC championship.

The Mustangs have won the past four meetings with the Mean Green and have a 35-6-1 all-time edge in the series. SMU hasn’t lost at home to North Texas since Sept. 1977 when it played its home games at Texas Stadium in Irving. That’s a string of 12 consecutive home wins against North Texas, including a 35-12 in 2021 at Ford Stadium.

The last time the Mean Green beat the Mustangs was in Denton in the 2018 season opener.

When SMU has the ball

The Mustangs lead the AAC in scoring, averaging 40 points a game. Will scoring be an issue if quarterback Preston Stone can’t play because of a concussion? Unlikely. Redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings, who won a state title with South Oak Cliff in 2021, appears capable of running the offense just fine. But against North Texas, which leads the AAC with 482.3 yards a game, it’ll be imperative that SMU maintains somewhat of a possession-oriented attack to keep the Mean Green offense off the field. (More on that later.)

Stone was excellent last week before leaving late in the game with a concussion. He thew for 224 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for a career-high 81 yards on , while gaining a career-high 81 rushing yards and a touchdown on eight carries to lead the team in rushing against Rice.

When North Texas has the ball

SMU’s AAC-leading defense, which ranks ninth in the country in scoring defense (15.9), fifth in sacks (31), and eighth in total defense (281.8), will face its toughest test yet against quarterback Chandler Rogers, who is second in the conference in pass attempts and passing yards and has the fewest interceptions (3) of any quarterback in the AAC. Ja’Mori Maclin leads the conference with 11 touchdown receptions and is second with 766 receiving yards. Roderic Burns and Damon Ward each have at least 385 receiving yards and both have caught four touchdowns. Running back Ayo Adeyi also presents a problem. The junior from Mansfield Legacy is third in the country with 7.3 yards a carry and has 716 yards and four touchdowns rushing. The Mean Green are coming off a tough 37-29 home loss to UTSA.

Prediction

After winning its first four conference games handily, SMU had to hold off Rice last week, despite a statistically commanding performance. The Mustangs have outscored AAC opponents 225-67. The North Texas offense could offer the SMU defense its toughest challenge yet. There’s no reason not to believe the Mustangs defense will rise to the occassion again, including defensive lineman Elijah Roberts, is in 11th in the country with 7.5 sacks, including 4.5 in his past three games.