Notre Dame's 2023 Opponents: Four flawed foes stand between Irish and a New Year's Six appearance

No. 14 Notre Dame’s first idle week coming eight games into the season was unquestionably an anomaly. Only four opponents remain after that break, two of which played each other last weekend.

In a week, the first College Football Playoff rankings will be released, and a conversation can begin in earnest about the Irish résumé for a New Year’s Six bowl — in the dying three-year Playoff rotation, this is the best year for Notre Dame to be hoping for a New Year’s Six bowl, with five at-large spots available, compared to one a year ago or three two years ago — but that debate will mostly come down to the Irish (6-2) finishing the season with only two losses. If they do that, then a Cotton, Peach or Fiesta Bowl appearance should be assured.

How likely is it that Notre Dame finishes 10-2? A look at those four remaining opponents suggests it should be the expectation …

Pittsburgh (2-5): The Panthers lost to Wake Forest, 21-17, coming as close to a win as a team can come without an in-game coaching mistake. Pittsburgh led 17-14 as second-time starter Christian Veilleux scrambled for a third-down conversion. He slid past the line to gain, but referees ruled he began the slide before the needed spot, marking him down short of the first down. The Demon Deacons then charged 48 yards in six plays and 33 seconds for the game-winning touchdown.

Look past that frustration, look past the fact that the Panthers should be 3-4, if not even 4-3. Recognize the real debacle: Giving up that subsequent touchdown to a first-time starting quarterback, junior Santino Marucci.

Unsurprisingly, the Pittsburgh defense remains stout overall, despite this struggle of a season. Head coach Pat Narduzzi knows no other way. Going into the weekend, it ranked No. 46 in the country in expected points added per snap, No. 29 if adjusting for quality of opponent. Holding Wake Forest to 323 total yards and 5.2 yards per play furthers those seemingly encouraging rankings, considering the Deacons lost 0.17 expected points per play. (Expected points assigns a value to each play based on down, distance, time, score and field position.)

But look a bit deeper, and there are holes in the Panthers, holes that not even Wake Forest could much exploit until that final minute.

Pittsburgh is middling in quality drives allowed, giving up scoring opportunities on 38.6 percent of possession before facing the Deacons, and when push came to shove, Wake Forest strung together three straight quality drives to end the game after managing just one on its first 10.

Worse yet, where it matters most, the Panthers give up points, allowing 3.58 points per scoring opportunity and touchdowns on 72.7 percent of opposing red-zone trips. To be more blunt, Wake Forest turned two red-zone possessions into two touchdowns despite entering the weekend with the country’s worst red-zone touchdown percentage, managing eight touchdowns on 20 possessions before Pittsburgh’s generosity.

A year ago, Notre Dame held that dubious honor, but now the Irish have turned 74 percent of their red-zone chances into end-zone visits, 20 out of 27 possessions, No. 18 in the country.

That edge, inside the 20-yard line and, more broadly, on the positive side of the field, explains why the Irish are up to 20.5-point favorites against the Panthers on Saturday at 2:30 ET on NBC.

Clemson (4-3): Falling to Miami, 28-20 in double overtime, for their third loss of the season was the earliest the Tigers have notched that third defeat since 2010, Dabo Swinney’s third season as head coach. Clemson has not lost four games in a season since 2011, a mark Notre Dame could push the Tigers past.

Current SP+ ratings, usually a good predictor of betting lines, would make the Irish a slight favorite at Clemson this weekend, a fact that should not change much unless Notre Dame thoroughly botches its matchup with Pittsburgh or the Tigers stumble mightily against North Carolina State at 2 ET on The CW, despite Clemson being favored by 10 points against the Wolfpack.

Why would the Irish hardly be favored against a three-loss team? The easy claim would be that the Tigers are consistently unlucky, they’ve lost more fumbles than anyone else since the start of the 2022 season, giving away possession via the bounce of an oblong ball on 22 occasions.

But the truth is, Clemson has made sloppiness a habit, be it on Saturdays if not also in practice and game preparation. When fumbling 39 times, losing 56.4 percent of them is not too baffling.

Dramatically, many of those have come where it matters most, memorably against Duke in this year’s season opener. Five different times this season, the Tigers have taken a snap within one yard of the end zone and failed to score any points on the possession.

The Hurricanes sacked Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik five times on Saturday night, something Swinney assigned to his offensive line.

That was a notable uptick from Miami’s average up until Saturday of 2.8 sacks per game, even more so a jump from the Tigers’ previous usual of 1.5 sacks allowed per game.

Notre Dame has one of the country’s best defenses, that is indisputable. And it should excel against Clemson’s critically flawed offense.

Wake Forest (4-3): That laugh of a win this weekend has the Demon Deacons suddenly on the verge of bowl eligibility. They almost certainly will not further that cause this weekend against No. 4 Florida State, not as 20-point underdogs (12 ET on ABC), and they will then have a short week before heading to Duke, presumably another loss.

But then Wake Forest will host North Carolina State on Nov. 11, and the Deacons could be favored in that conference tilt. Win that and the bowl dream will be alive when Wake Forest visits Notre Dame on Nov. 18.

The question will be, who do the Demon Deacons start at quarterback? Mitch Griffis started most of the season before he was benched a week ago, only for his replacement, Michael Kern, to then be injured. Part of Griffis’s benching was a slight injury, one that then kept him sidelined against Pittsburgh.

Enter Marucci.

He was on the third string for a reason. His preseason practice showings had been that abysmal. But he did find that late success against Pittsburgh.

Some may hope that clutch showing will be a positive harbinger for Wake Forest. It was more likely a strong reflection of Pittsburgh’s failure and of Marucci being an unknown. Florida State and Duke will put together plenty of tape on his flaws.

If Notre Dame should be worried about anything with Wake Forest, it is its decent defense, an adjustment for Demon Deacons head coach Dave Clawson. SP+ considers it to be the No. 48 defense in the country, and it gives up touchdowns on only 36.8 percent of opposing red-zone drives, No. 7 in the country.

But the Irish will be hefty favorites on Senior Day, not just because Sam Hartman will seek revenge. A spread near three touchdowns should be expected if for no other reason than Notre Dame is No. 6 in the country in opposing red-zone touchdown rate, giving up only nine touchdowns on 25 opposing trips inside the 20-yard line, a worrying precursor for an inexperienced quarterback, no matter how well his debut ended.

Stanford (2-5): The Cardinal is going to finish the season 2-10. It is that simple.

No. 5 Washington is favored by nearly four touchdowns this weekend (7 ET on FS1), set to pick up where UCLA left off in its 42-7 shellacking of Stanford.

The Cardinal will be a three-touchdown underdog at Washington State in a week, a four-touchdown underdog at Oregon State the week after and at least a touchdown underdog to its biggest rival, Cal, on Nov. 18.

Stanford exposed Colorado for the flawed program it very much is two weeks ago, but that will be the last high point of the season, one the Irish will mercifully end after Thanksgiving.