Notre Dame's Opponents: North Carolina State betting on QB Brennan Armstrong's reunion with OC Robert Anae

Offseason realignment defined the offseason in the ACC just like the rest of the country, but in this case, the realignment in question focused on quarterbacks,

not schools. Loosely counting Sam Hartman’s move to Notre Dame from Wake Forest, three passers moved within the conference, most notably Brennan Armstrong taking the lead at North Carolina State after four seasons at Virginia.

Three other ACC schools brought in starting quarterbacks from outside the conference while two stars left, most notably former Wolfpack passer Devin Leary heading to Kentucky.

In other words, North Carolina State embodied the ACC’s offseason, and that is without even getting to offensive coordinator Robert Anae.

The Armstrong-Anae reunion should be the defining factor of the Wolfpack season, and it may be the biggest dice role of head coach Dave Doeren’s 11 years in Raleigh. Setting aside his first season, Doeren has posted a winning record in eight of his last nine years at North Carolina State, the exception coming in 2019, Leary’s first season in the program.

Doeren has established perpetual competence as long as he has a veteran passer, and Armstrong is very much that.

In his final two seasons with Anae as his offensive coordinator at Virginia, Armstrong completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt and 49 touchdowns compared to 21 interceptions. The 2021 offense, in particular, gave the Cavaliers a chance at greater dreams, averaging 36.9 points per game against FBS opponents and with Armstrong behind center.

(Notre Dame fans may remember a rib injury sidelined Armstrong against the Irish that November, playing a distinct part in Virginia scoring just three points that night.)

When the two split, things fell apart for both Armstrong and Anae, the former throwing 12 interceptions against only seven touchdowns last season, the latter failing to crack 25 points per game in one season on the Syracuse coaching staff.

Hence, their reunion.

With up to nine Wolfpack starters using their added season of eligibility, Armstrong and Anae may raise North Carolina State’s ceiling. At least, that is what Doeren is betting on.

OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
Anae will want to open things up, and Armstrong has the arm and the know-how to do so. But does the Wolfpack have the receivers to make that work? Only one of North Carolina State’s top-four receivers returns this season.

The Wolfpack need Clemson transfer Dacari Collins to fit in alongside senior Keyon Lesane while younger options find their footing with Anae and Armstrong. In that regard, Notre Dame is fortunate to play North Carolina State so early in the season.

Some of those same thoughts should apply to the Wolfpack offensive line. A clear part of Armstrong’s troubles last season was an inability to stay upright. In the previous two seasons with Anae’s system, Virginia gave up 2.5 sacks per game for a loss of 15.5 yards, ignoring that Irish tilt when Armstrong was sidelined and his backup was lost in pressures.

Last year, Virginia gave up 3.4 sacks for a loss of 22.7 yards per game.

Anae enjoys three returning offensive line starters, but some skepticism there is founded. Again, the Irish are fortunate to play North Carolina State so early in the season.

DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
The Wolfpack lost a lot from its most reliable unit; only five starters return.

The departures included a first-team All-ACC linebacker, a second-team All-ACC linebacker and a safety tandem that all combined for 64.5 disruptive plays last season.

Some of that will be replaced simply by having bodies on the field, but that kind of chaos is hard to recreate right away. Sixth-year linebacker Payton Wilson will be the starting point.

From a Notre Dame-specific viewpoint, North Carolina State has a pair of proven and talented cornerbacks. This Sept. 9 meeting should be a good chance to gauge the Irish receivers.

2023 OUTLOOK
Doeren’s bet on Armstrong and Anae should have a high floor, but how high will its ceiling be?

Going to Connecticut before facing Notre Dame will at least assure a 1-1 start, and by no means can the Irish expect an enjoyable rout. Going off current SP+ ratings, Notre Dame should be favored by about 9.5 that afternoon (Sept. 9 at 12 ET on ABC).

From there, the Wolfpack enjoy a bounty of winnable games and Armstrong will get to return to his former school, an ideal scheduling quirk for any team given how poor Virgina should be in 2023.

But with a win total set at 6.5 or 7, depending on the sportsbook, North Carolina State will need to find at least two wins from visits from Louisville, Miami and North Carolina or tips to Duke and Wake Forest. With low expectations, Doeren should find a way to a winning season, just as he has over and over again in his decade in Raleigh.

See the 90 seconds in the below video for a more thorough thought process on North Carolina State’s ceiling, beginning at 14:52.

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