Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction, Preview, and Odds
It may not be football, but State College is fully prepared to welcome the Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1; 4-5-0 ATS) on Saturday. Bryce Jordan Center is where the Penn State Nittany Lions (4-5; 3-6-0 ATS) will hope to earn their first Big Ten win. This December matchup is scheduled to start at 6:00 p.m. EDT. Will the Buckeyes stay red hot, or are the Nittany Lions going to pounce?
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The Buckeyes are Back?
After a rough 2022-23 season, Ohio State has raced to an 8-1 start this year. Their only loss came against a ranked Texas A&M team and they enter Pennsylvania after a 20-point win. They're carried by an offense scoring 80.9 points per game despite a slow pace. Bruce Thornton (18.7 ppg) leads the way. As a team, the Buckeyes hit 47.4% of their shots and 40.1% of threes. They also knock down 77.0% of free throw attempts while grabbing 12.6 offensive boards per game. Stopping this Ohio State offense is a tough task.
The defense isn't as dominant but still holds foes to 65.6 points per game. They've benefited from opponents only shooting 65.5% at the charity stripe. However, Ohio State still holds teams to 41.7% shooting and 33.2% from deep. The Buckeyes are also +6.3 on the boards and +2.4 in turnovers for an average game. An average differential of +15.3 is nothing to scoff at, regardless of who was on the schedule.
Penn State's Pitiful Slide
Once upon a time, Penn State was 4-0 this season. After an overtime loss at Maryland this Wednesday, they're 4-5. The theme of the Nittany Lions' losing streak is poor defense. They're allowing 84 points per game during the skid, much worse than their season average of 70.4. During the losing streak, opponents are shooting 50.3% from the floor and 35.9% from deep. For the season, Penn State's average rebounding margin is -5.1. Will they bounce back against the Buckeyes?
Their offensive production hasn't changed much throughout these tough times. The team puts up 75.7 points per game (74.2 over the last five) on 43.5% shooting (44.9% in the past five). However, the offense has a glaring flaw, and that is a three-point percentage below 30%. Only knocking down 29.7% of triples will limit Penn State's potential. Even their leading scorer, guard Kanye Clary (16.2 ppg), is only hitting 28.1% of his shots from beyond the arc. That's where the team needs to step up the most.
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Best Bets for this Game
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With the way Penn State is (not) playing defense right now, Ohio State is going to light them up. Just to recap, the Nittany Lions have allowed more than 50% shooting during their five-game losing streak. KenPom has Ohio State 15th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They shoot 47.4% as a team.
The Buckeyes will score at least 80 points in this game. It's up to Penn State's offense to match, and a unit only shooting 29.7% from three will not be capable. Especially since they will get bullied on the glass and have few second-chance points. Expect the Buckeyes to keep rolling.
Prediction: Ohio State -5
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It's going to be tight, but this game will reach 150 points. For starters, Penn State's uptempo attack will counter Ohio State's slower style. The Nittany Lions will add possessions to this game and reach the 70-point mark at home.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes will cruise to 80 against this porous Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions are allowing 84.0 points per game in their past five, and Ohio State (80.9 ppg) shoots 47.4% as a team. Expect this game to exceed the total.
Prediction: Over 148
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
