Oregon vs. Colorado Prediction, Preview, and Odds
It’s the title game of the Pac-12 Tournament as the final two teams battle in Sin City to hoist the tournament title for the final time in its current iteration. The fourth-seeded Oregon Ducks look to keep their season going as they take on the third-seeded Colorado Buffaloes Saturday night with the winner earning the automatic bid to March Madness. Oregon stunned top-seeded #6 Arizona 67-59 in their semifinal matchup Friday night, winning outright as an 11.5-point underdog. Colorado took down second-seeded #22 Washington State 58-52 in their semifinal Friday night, covering the line as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Buffaloes own an 18-12 edge and took both meetings this season. That includes a 79-75 win on the road on March 7 in their previous contest.
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Oregon Ducks Seeking to Steal a Bid
Oregon won their third straight game as they shocked #6 Arizona in their semifinal matchup Friday night, winning outright as a double-digit underdog. The Ducks improved to 22-11 overall and 12-8 in the Pac-12 with the victory. Against Arizona, Oregon trailed by 14 with 1:47 to play in the first half, cut the margin to 10 at the half and outscored the Wildcats 44-26 in the second half en route to the win. The Ducks took the lead for good at 45-44 on a Jackson Shelstad layup with 10:38 remaining as part of a 10-0 run. Oregon shot 42.4% from the field, including seven of 23 from three-point range, and held a 38-33 edge on the glass while forcing 14 Arizona turnovers. Shelstad led the Ducks with 21 points in the win.
— Oregon Men's Basketball (@OregonMBB) March 16, 2024
The Ducks are 112th in the nation in scoring offense as they average 75.6 points per game this season. Oregon is grabbing 34.2 boards a night while they are handing out 13.8 dimes a night. The Ducks are below average defensively, ranking 202nd in scoring defense as they allow 72.4 points per game. N’Faly Dante is one of five players on the team as he puts up 15.8 points and 8.7 rebounds per game this season. Nate Bittle (10 points, 4.4 rebounds), Jermaine Couisnard (15.3 points, 4.5 rebounds), Keeshawn Barthelemy (7.8 points) and Jesse Zarzuela (10 points) each are solid scoring options. Kario Oquendo (7.8 points), Jackson Shelstad (12.7 points), Brennan Rigsby, Jadrian Tracey, Kwame Evans Jr. and Mahamadou Diawara are key contributors for coach Dana Altman’s group. Oregon is shooting 45.8% percent from the field as a team this season. The Ducks are draining 7.5 triples a night while shooting 34.2% from beyond the arc. Oregon is shooting a below average 71.3% from the free throw line as a team this season.
Zarzuela (ankle) is done for the season after playing only five games. Barthelemy (leg) last played January 27 and is done for the year, as is Bittle (illness), who last took the floor January 27 and played just five games.
Colorado Buffaloes Look to Finish Strong
Colorado took down #22 Washington State in a rock fight in the semifinals to punch their ticket to the title game while running their win streak to eight games. The Buffaloes improved to 24-9 overall and stood 13-7 in conference play on the year. Against Washington State, Colorado took a four-point lead at the half, pushed it to eight in the opening minutes of the second half and led by nine with 12:31 remaining. The Buffaloes saw the lead trimmed to one with 1:57 to play but scored the final five points for the win. Colorado shot 43.1% from the field, including three of 15 from three-point range, and forced 19 Washington State turnovers in the game. Tristan da Silva led the Buffaloes with 13 points in the win.
— Colorado Men's Basketball (@CUBuffsMBB) March 16, 2024
For the season, the Buffaloes are averaging 79.6 points per game to date, putting them 39th in the nation in scoring offense. Colorado is averaging 37.7 rebounds per contest and they dish out an average of 15.9 assists (34th) a night on the year. The Buffaloes are average on the defensive end of the floor as they surrender an average of 71.1 points per contest this year, putting them 169th in the nation in scoring defense. Tristan da Silva is second on the Buffaloes with 16 points plus 5.2 rebounds per game this season. KJ Simpson (19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists), Cody Williams (12.8 points) and J’Vonne Hadley (12 points, 6.1 rebounds) are good secondary scoring options. Eddie Lampkin Jr. (10.3 points, 7.2 rebounds), Julian Hammond III, RJ Smith, Luke O’Brien and Assane Diop are solid rotation pieces for Colorado. The Buffaloes are shooting 49.5% from the field as a team on the year, putting them 6th in the nation. Colorado is knocking down an average of 6.9 three-pointers a night while shooting 39.7% from beyond the arc, which is 3rd in the nation. The Buffaloes are solid at the free throw line as they knock down 77.3% of their attempts on the season, putting them 17th in Division I.
Smith (leg) is done for the year: he last played back on November 29. Hammond III (knee) last played February 17 and is without a timetable to return.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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Oregon comes in with three straight ugly wins where they haven’t cracked 70 points in downing Utah, UCLA and Arizona. The Ducks are banged up and trying to get by with smoke and mirrors at this point. That might be too much to ask against a Colorado squad with eight straight wins on the books. The Buffaloes just held a very good Washington State team to 52 points, marking just the second time this season the Cougars failed to crack the 60-point mark. Williams coming back was a boost psychologically for Colorado: though he struggled in 19 minutes, his presence provided a boost. Colorado has been rolling and that keeps going here as they win the conference tourney crown.
Prediction: Colorado Buffaloes -2.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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On the year, the Ducks have gone over the total in 19 of their 33 games heading into this game. Oregon comes into this one ranked 57th in offensive efficiency and 78th in defensive efficiency this season. The Ducks have improved on the offensive end as the season has gone on as they are 108th in effective field goal percentage (52%) and 59th in turnover percentage (15.1%) on the year. Oregon is 197th in tempo with an average of 67.2 possessions a night this season. On the season, the Buffaloes have seen the over post a 19-14 record entering this game. Colorado is 25th in offensive efficiency on the year while they are 17th in effective field goal percentage (55.5%) and stand 3rd in three-point shooting. The Buffaloes are an above average team as they rank 164th in tempo as they average 67.6 possessions a night. Oregon isn’t scoring and Colorado is coming off a solid defensive showing. Play the under here.
Prediction: Under 143.5
Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO. If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career. Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.
