Oregon vs Liberty prediction, odds: Fiesta Bowl preview

The Liberty Flames — who are ranked 23rd in the latest College Football Playoff rankings — will make their big bowl debut on Monday in the Fiesta Bowl against the No. 8 Oregon Ducks.

Liberty (13-0) achieved double-digit wins for the second time since becoming an FBS program in 2018. The Flames are in a bowl for the fifth straight season, going 3-1 in their four previous bowl games. This is Liberty's first year in Conference USA and the Flames won the conference title with a 49-35 win over New Mexico State. Head coach Jamey Chadwell is in his first year running the program after going 39-22 in five seasons at Coastal Carolina.

Oregon (11-2) looked like the best team in the country at times in 2023, but two losses to the Washington Huskies kept the Ducks from reaching the College Football Playoff. This is the fourth time Oregon is playing in a New Year's Six bowl game.

Quarterback Bo Nix finished third in the Heisman Trophy Award voting after a standout season with 4,145 yards and 40 touchdowns. His favorite target is Troy Franklin, who hauled in 81 passes for 1,383 and 14 touchdowns. Franklin, however, has opted out of the game leaving Tez Johnson as the top option. Johnson also had over 1,000 yards receiving for the Ducks.

Oregon will be without three other starters on Monday. Offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson, defensive lineman Popo Aumavae and cornerback Khyree Jackson have all opted out to begin their pursuit of NFL careers. Liberty will have some holes on defense, as well. Defensive back Preston Hodge has transferred to Colorado. The Flames will also be without rotational defensive linemen Kendy Charles and Bryan Whitehead.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, lists the Ducks as 16.5-point favorites with a total set at 67.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Liberty Flames (13-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (11-2)

Time/TV: Monday, Jan. 1, at noon CT (ESPN)

Point spread (from Caesars): Oregon -16.5

Over/Under: 67

Moneyline: Oregon -900, Liberty +600

Analysis:This over/under is large, even if one expects Oregon to run through Liberty's defense. The Flames are 4-0 against the spread in their previous bowl games (3-1 straight up). The Ducks' clear advantage at the line of scrimmage is what will be the difference here. Liberty should put up a fight for a half, but Oregon will overwhelm the Flames as the game moves along.

Prediction: Oregon 47, Liberty 28 (Over 67)

Best bet: Oregon -16.5 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)