Orioles vs Mariners Prediction, Picks, Odds
Seattle is back in the playoff hunt as the M's sit just a half-game back of a Wild Card spot following eight straight wins. But while backing George Kirby and the home side may seem like a no-brainer, our betting picks suggest otherwise.
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The red-hot Mariners claimed yet another victim on Friday night, dusting the Orioles at home for their eighth straight victory. They can claim yet another series victory with a win on Saturday evening, and right-hander George Kirby will be the man to take the ball for the home side.
Let’s break down Orioles vs. Mariners in our free MLB picks and predictions for August 12.
Orioles vs Mariners odds
Orioles vs Mariners predictions
I’ve come under fire for my skepticism toward George Kirby in the past, but the fact of the matter here is that the 25-year-old is still very much a work in progress. Kirby is a strike-thrower and exercises excellent command, but the batted-ball results have really been all over the place.
While Kirby doesn’t flood the bases with unnecessary walks, he has pitched to a .258 expected batting average this year which puts him a whopping 13 points worse than the league average. The Seattle Mariners pitcher also holds a 3.86 ERA, which would indicate that he’s not quite been the sturdy arm that pundits are billing him as.
The Baltimore Orioles are a team that owns a .756 OPS against ground-ball pitchers this year and a good .260 batting average in that split. Kirby certainly would technically classify as one of those with a 45% ground ball rate, and in the month of August, that number is up over 55%.
The thing is, Cole Irvin isn’t going to be able to protect any sort of lead when he takes the mound for the Baltimore Orioles. The left-hander enters tonight with a brutal .298 xBA and 6.66 xERA. He’s been torched all year in the contact department, and against an offense this good, he’ll certainly make life miserable on Under bettors.
I like a play on the Over tonight in the Emerald City.
My best bet: Over 8 (-106 at FanDuel)
Orioles vs Mariners same-game parlay
Over 8 (-106)
Hernandez 2+ total bases (-120)
Mountcastle 2+ total bases (+160)
I’m going to be the contrarian here and back some sluggers in what I think will be a tougher matchup than expected on both pitchers.
Teoscar Hernandez is one of the best Mariners against southpaw pitchers, hitting .302 this season in 100 plate appearances. In that split, he has accumulated eight doubles and six homers, so making a play on his total bases tonight is a pretty wise one.
I also love Ryan Mountcastle to have a day against Kirby. The slugger has hit just .220 against fly ball pitchers this year but boasts a whopping .282 average against ground ball guys and a .302 BA against pitchers who would find themselves around the league average in that area.
Kirby would either fall into one of those final two categories. With Mountcastle slashing .403 over his last 21 games, I would find it hard to believe he doesn’t make an impact on Saturday.
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Orioles vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
While Irvin started off the year with a disastrous 10.66 ERA in three April starts, he’s now allowed three earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He hasn’t started since the middle of July, but he was effective in this role.
I certainly see some value here in taking the Orioles in this spot. You can always bet your bottom dollar that the public will back a team on a winning streak, particularly with a pitcher like Kirby on the mound. Baltimore would have to be the contrarian play here.
There’s a far greater chance they win this game than the implied 41.3% probability according to oddsmakers, so I’ll be on Baltimore this evening.
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Trend to know
The Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 111 games (+24.40 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Mariners
Orioles vs Mariners game info
Starting pitchers
Cole Irvin (1-3, 5.44 ERA): The tall left-hander hasn’t exactly had a stunning season, posting a 5.44 ERA in 48 innings. However, Irvin was a decent starter last year with a 3.98 ERA and average 4.40 xERA, so there’s certainly some hope to be found that the poor 2023 numbers are the result of a small sample size.
George Kirby (10-8, 3.32 ERA): In Kirby's two starts since coughing up five runs in Minnesota, he’s allowed just two over 12 frames. He’s also struck out 12 in those outings and allowed just one home run.
