Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (71-44) and Seattle Mariners (62-52) will open a 3-game series on Friday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 2-1

The Orioles are 7-3 in their last 10 games but they avoided being swept in a 3-game series vs. the Houston Astros with a 5-4 win Thursday. Baltimore still leads the AL East by 3 games and has scored the 6th-most runs in the league (567).

The Mariners enter on a 7-game win streak and have won 9 of their last 10 to pull within 5 1/2 games of the Texas Rangers for the lead in the AL West. Seattle owns the 2nd-lowest team ERA in the majors (3.74).

Orioles at Mariners projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Gibson (11-6, 4.50 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 140 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 7-3 home victory vs. New York Mets Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 6-3, 3.95 ERA (84 1/3 IP, 37 ER) across 14 starts
• Career vs. Mariners: 4-5, 4.21 ERA (77 IP, 36 ER) in 14 starts
• 2023 vs. Mariners: Loss, 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 13-1 home loss on June 23

Castillo (7-7, 3.21 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 137 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-7 road victory vs. Los Angeles Angeles last Friday
• 2023 home stats: 5-3, 2.79 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 24 ER) over 13 starts
• First career start vs. Orioles

Orioles at Mariners odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:07 a.m. ET.

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Orioles at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Orioles 3

The Mariners have been red hot lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games by sweeping the San Diego Padres (2 games) and Los Angeles Angels (4 games) and taking 2 of 3 from the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles are playing some quality baseball right now, too, but it’s the Mariners who have been more impressive.

With Castillo on the mound boasting a 2.79 ERA at home, I like the Mariners’ chances Friday. BET MARINERS (-145) despite the juice.

Even though the Mariners have won 5 of their last 7 games by at least 2 runs, this is likely to be a close game against a strong opponent. You could SPRINKLE a bit on the MARINERS -1.5 (+145) but it’s risky to do so if you’re already betting on the moneyline.

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There’s been no clear trend with the Over/Under for either team lately. The Over is 5-5 in the Orioles’ last 10 games and it’s 4-5-1 in the Mariners’ last 10. The total has only gone Over once in Gibson’s last 4 starts and once in Castillo’s last 3.

BET UNDER 8 (-120).

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