Orioles vs. Yankees Picks, Predictions & Odds: Will Baltimore Bring Fireworks to New York on Fourth of July?

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04 July 2023

Orioles vs. Yankees Picks, Predictions & Odds: Will Baltimore Bring Fireworks to New York on Fourth of July?

Happy Fourth of July! One of the marquee games in Major League Baseball features American League East rivals who are separated by just three games in the standings. Check out our Orioles vs. Yankees predictions based on the best MLB odds.

The New York Yankees have certainly struggled with Aaron Judge on the injured list, though they seem to be at least somewhat turning the corner. New York has won three of its last four series and took the first game of this home showdown with the Baltimore Orioles.

Meanwhile, the Orioles are starting to sputter a bit. They've lost five of their last six games and need to correct that trend if they hope to remain atop the AL wild-card standings.

Who will come out on top in this Fourth of July showdown in the Bronx?

Here is our best Orioles vs. Yankees pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Orioles vs. Yankees pick

Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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First, and most importantly, Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt doesn't really strike out a ton of opposing hitters. His 8.64 strikeouts per nine innings and 21.8% strikeout rate are both fine but not special. Additionally, the Orioles are in the top third in the league with an impressive 22% strikeout rate as a team. The projections and odds movement back up those data points.

By combining the projections of Ballpark Pal, NumberFire, and FantasyPros, we get a projected strikeout total of 4.37 for Schmidt on Tuesday. Additionally, Ballpark Pal - which is on the low end of those three - prices Under 4.5 strikeouts at -213.

There's also been some sharp movement to suggest we're on the right side of this bet. Pinnacle opened Under 4.5 at +116, and it was pushed to -109 before some buy-back on the Over. After briefly re-listing the prop at 5.5, Pinnacle - as well as all of our best sports betting apps - is back at 4.5, and we've once again seen money come in on the Under, as it's been pushed from +111 to -103.

By playing this bet at FanDuel, we're getting +17.89% expected value on a projection of 4.37. If you operate only off Ballpark Pal's low projection of 3.69, our expected value jumps to +43.96%. Even with NumberFire's high mark of 4.79, the Under at FanDuel is still showing +1.45% expected value, proving that even the most optimistic of projections still show value on the Under.

This is a four-star bet thanks to FanDuel's generous odds. Among our best sports betting sites, Caesars has the second-best price at +106, while DraftKings isn't far behind at +105 on the Under.

Orioles vs. Yankees best odds

FanDuel (+110)

As previously mentioned, most of our best sportsbooks are offering similar odds on this prop, with FanDuel providing slightly more value with its +110 price.

For those looking to back the Over, DraftKings offers the best price at -130. Meanwhile, BetMGM is the book to avoid for those who plan to ride with us on the Under.

Orioles vs. Yankees odds

Orioles vs. Yankees odds analysis

Our best sportsbooks are pricing this as a fairly even affair, with the Yankees only slight favorites on the moneyline. New York is hovering around -120 to win Tuesday's game, with Baltimore trading in the +100 range, with FanDuel offering the best price on an Orioles win at +108.

Bettors are fairly split on who they think will come out on top, as roughly 53% of moneyline bets are on the underdog Orioles.

As far as the total, after either opening or dropping to 8.5 at some of our best sportsbooks, it sits at 9 now, with 59% of bets coming in on the Over.