Pac-12 projected win totals, best bets from Austin Mock’s model: USC are favored, but there are a lot of contenders

The Athletic

01 January 0001

Pac-12 projected win totals, best bets from Austin Mock’s model: USC are favored, but there are a lot of contenders

The 2023 college football season will be the last of the current version of the Pac-12 with ongoing conference realignment, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be excited about what the Pac-12 will put on the field. There isn’t a conference you should be more excited about this season than the Pac-12.

Caleb Williams gets all the glory but Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix deserve some praise and this conference should have no problem lighting up scoreboards. Penix Jr. could play himself into the first round in next year’s NFL Draft, and Nix could be a mid-rounder. Pac-12 After Dark’s days are numbered — maybe there will be Pac-4 After Dark? or Big Ten After Dark? — but those days have a chance to be outstanding.

Why should there be so much excitement, you ask? Well, for starters, the offenses are going to be electric. USC, Oregon, Washington and UCLA should all have offensive units that rank in the top 10 in college football and defending Pac-12 champion Utah isn’t too far behind. Led by quarterback star power, these offenses will need to be great because, outside of Utah, there is an argument that none of these teams have a top-50 defense. Regardless, this conference will have plenty of teams near the top 15 in the country and should be entertaining week in and week out and that’s without even discussing what Colorado will look like with Deion Sanders now running the show.

When you have five teams that all have playoff aspirations, that makes for a fun season with a lot of possibilities, USC is my favorite — same with the sportsbooks — but Oregon, Washington and Utah aren’t far behind. Considering the strength of the top teams, USC is only winning the conference around 25 percent of the time per my projections, so let’s take a stab at where the value lies in the future markets across the Conference of Champions for one final time.

My college football projection model creates a projection rating for each team based on play-by-play data and adjusts for opponent. From those derived ratings, I’m able to then simulate every game of the season and project how many games a team will win, how often they win their conference or division, as well as how often they make the College Football Playoff and win the national title. These can then be used against the betting market or just for general trash talking among fan bases.

Here’s a look at what the model says for all 12 Pac-12 teams this season. Projections for the Big 12,SEC, Big Ten and ACC have already been posted.

Pac-12 projections

XWINS is the average win total over the model’s simulations. CONF. TITLE is how often the team won the conference title game. 6+ WINS is how often the team gained bowl eligibility.

Colorado has had an unprecedented amount of roster turnover from last year, which makes their projection prone to a lot of variance. I would take their projections with a grain of salt and won’t be looking to get involved with them until a few games into the season.

Best bets

All odds from BetMGM. All bets are to win 0.5 units on favorites and risk 0.5 units on underdogs. Also, please shop around at various sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best price available.

Arizona over 5 wins (+100)

Did I mention that offense rules this conference? Jedd Fisch had the Wildcats playing pretty well on that side of the ball last year and they return a lot of production. This offense projects inside the top 25 for me heading into this season. The issue is that their defense doesn’t return a lot from a pretty bad unit. Only up from here, though, right? Hopefully. Throw in a winnable road game at Mississippi State early in the season, combined with a lot of their tougher conference games being at home and I think Arizona can be bowling by season’s end.

USC under 10 wins (-110)

Yeah, I’m doing it. I’m fading the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and what should be a top-5 offense in college football. The reason is the defense. For what seems like the millionth season in a row, question marks surround Lincoln Riley’s defense. Alex Grinch, somehow, remains the defensive coordinator and until the Trojans prove that they can consistently get stops, my projections will see them as average at best. They do return a lot on that side of the ball but considering how poor they played last year and the offensive firepower within the conference, I don’t have high hopes.

Utah over 8.5 wins (+120)

The loss of Dalton Kincaid will be a big one, but all this Utah football program does is win games. The Utes are a top-25 team in returning production metrics and Cam Rising has that dog in him, what’s not to like? My projections have Utah as easily the most balanced team in the conference (top 25 on both offense and defense) and the Utes certainly have a good coaching staff to get the most out of this squad. Florida comes to town in Week 1, but Utah is currently more than a touchdown favorite in that game. A road trip to Baylor won’t be easy either, but, again, Utah should be favored. Utah has won nine games every season (except the COVID season) since 2018 and I think the Utes get it done again this year.