Packers vs. Chargers prediction, odds, line, spread, time: 2023 NFL picks, Week 11 best bets from top model
The Green Bay Packers look to generate positive momentum as they host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Green Bay (3-6) played valiantly in Pittsburgh last week before falling, 23-19, while Los Angeles (4-5) lost a heartbreaker to Detroit, 41-38. The Chargers won the franchises' most recent matchup, 26-11 in 2019. Both teams are 4-5 against the spread this season.
Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 1 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a 3-point favorite in the Chargers vs. Packers odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under is 44. Before making any Packers vs. Chargers picks of your own, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 174-125 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 28-17 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chargers vs. Packers and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 11 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Chargers:
- Packers vs. Chargers spread: Chargers -3
- Packers vs. Chargers over/under: 44 points
- Packers vs. Chargers money line: Chargers -157, Packers +133
- Packers vs. Chargers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Packers vs. Chargers live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Chargers can cover
Will Green Bay have an answer for Los Angeles' dynamic trio of Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen? Herbert is once again playing at a high level as evidenced by his 323 yards passing and four touchdowns against Detroit in Week 10. He's accounted for 20 total touchdowns this season and will likely need to carry the team on his back if they are to win the minimum six more games necessary to potentially make the AFC playoff field.
Ekeler hasn't been fully healthy all season due to injuries, though he's averaging 97 combined yards and almost a touchdown per game in the six contests he's played. Allen has been the team's most consistent playmaker, ranking fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 875. Last week against the Lions, he caught 11 passes for 175 yards and two scores. It's unlikely that the undermanned Packers defense will be able to adequately slow Los Angeles' top targets this week. See which team to pick here.
Why the Packers can cover
The back half of the 2023 regular season will go a long way in determining whether Jordan Love is likely to be Green Bay quarterback of the future. He's completing only 58.7% of his passes for 2,009 yards, with 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Love showed flashes last week, completing 21 of 40 passes against a stingy Pittsburgh defense for 289 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. With Green Bay almost certainly out of playoff contention, the front office is in full evaluation mode as to Love's future in Wisconsin.
Green Bay is only averaging 311 yards per game on offense, 12th worst in the NFL entering Week 11. The unit has been decimated by injuries to top players including running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson. The Packers' top three receivers last Sunday were all 2023 draft picks: wide receivers Jayden Reed (5-84-1) and Dontayvion Wicks (3-51-0), as well as tight end Luke Musgrave (2-64-0). While the immediate future is dim, the future for Green Bay, assuming Love can establish himself as a competent NFL starting quarterback, seems to be brighter. See which team to pick here.
How to make Chargers vs. Packers picks
The model has simulated Los Angeles vs. Green Bay 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model's Chargers vs. Packers pick at SportsLine.
