Padres vs. Braves Predictions, Picks & Odds

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06 April 2023

Padres vs. Braves Predictions, Picks & Odds

The Atlanta Braves are off to a nearly flawless start and have suffered just one loss. Will the San Diego Padres be able to slow them down? Let's dive into our Padres vs. Braves MLB picks based on the best MLB odds

The Braves have been doing a whole lot of early-season stomping en route to a 5-1 record. They've already built their run differential up to an impressive plus-18, the third-best mark in the National League. The Braves aren't just picking on pushovers either, as the club is fresh off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Now they'll trot out Spencer Strider to face the Padres after he shined in his opening outing, pitching a shutout while allowing just three hits and three walks with nine strikeouts over six innings against the Washington Nationals. He'll oppose Blake Snell, who gave up three earned runs over only 4 1/3 innings during his 2023 debut while facing the Colorado Rockies.

The Braves' scalding-hot offense is well-positioned to rough up Snell again, and especially one of its top sluggers.

Here is our best Padres-Braves prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Padres vs. Braves prediction

Austin Riley to record an RBI (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Austin Riley's start was somewhat sluggish, as he went just 2-for-10 at the plate over the Braves' first three games without an extra-base hit.

But he's swung in the opposite direction since then. Riley smacked three extra-base hits over three outings against the Cardinals, including his first two home runs of the campaign. That led to four RBI throughout the sweep and an OPS that's climbed to .976.

He's looking much more like the usual baseball masher who's parked 30-plus homers in the stands during two straight seasons, topping out at a career-high 38 in 2022, leading to a sixth-place finish in MVP voting. And now is the time to face Snell with Riley potentially rounding into form early.

Riley thrived overall in 2022, but especially against lefties. The right-handed power hitter finished with a 1.084 OPS against southpaws, compared to a .811 when opposing a righty. There was a similar chasm when looking at batting average (.329 to .255) and slugging (.617 to .483).

That's all also coming from a third baseman who fires off torpedos regularly regardless of how the ball is coming at him. Riley finished among the top 5% of the league in average exit velocity (92.5 mph) and hard-hit percentage (50.8) in 2022, according to Baseball Savant.

He's done all that while mostly hitting third in a lineup filled with both pop and patience, leading to plenty of RBI opportunities. The Braves rank seventh with a team OPS of .810 early in 2023. That comes after ranking second at .760 in 2022.

Snell posted quality splits against righties in 2022, but he's not far removed from allowing a .762 OPS to righties in 2021 compared to a .458 to lefties. Even more in Riley's favor is Snell's tendency to give up the long ball to righties. That's not something he does in general, as Snell allowed just 11 homers in 2022, and a still modest 16 in 2021. But righties accounted for 14 and 10 in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

That homer weakness is yet another factor making this play appealing, alongside Riley's effectiveness and the Braves' status as an overall offensive juggernaut.

Padres vs. Braves best odds

DraftKings (+155)

This prop is featured at four of our five top-rated sportsbooks, and you should lace up your best running shoes and sprint as fast as possible away from FanDuel. That book isn't in the same continent as the other three, with Draftkings offering a slim edge over Caesars Sportsbook.

If you're feeling aggressive and/or confident in Riley after his two dingers over the slugger's last three games, Caesars offers the best home run odds at +430.

Padres vs. Braves odds

The Braves are the heavy favorites while at home and with the sizzling Strider on the mound. They're as low as -170 at PointsBet, and Atlanta only climbs to -161 through BetMGM. The run line offers better value for Braves backers, and specifically the +130 through DraftKings and Caesars. Meanwhile, take the +142 through FanDuel if you think the Padres can tame Strider. Unsurprisingly, the Braves are attracting 66% of the moneyline action.

The total sits at 8 across the board. If you envision a pitcher's duel, head to DraftKings, BetMGM, or Caesars, which are all offering the Under at +100. PointsBet is the top destination for those anticipating a slugfest, as it's posting a -115 price on the Over. The percentages are much closer here, with the Under getting 41% of the action and the Over drawing 59%.