Padres vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The San Diego Padres (48-52) and Pittsburgh Pirates (43-56) square off in the first of a three-game series on Monday at PETCO Park, at 9:40 PM ET. The Padres are coming off a series victory over the Tigers, and the Pirates a series loss to the Angels.

The Pirates are an away underdog (+215) versus the Padres (-261). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.

The betting insights in the article below use the latest odds as of July 24, 2023 at 7:13 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Padres vs Pirates Betting Lines

Padres Betting Insights

• This season, the Padres have been favored 74 times and won 39, or 52.7%, of those games.
• San Diego has entered three games this season favored by -261 or more and is 2-1 in those contests.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 72.3% chance to win.
• San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 40 of its 100 games with a total this season.
• The Padres are 48-52-0 against the spread this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Pirates Betting Insights

• The Pirates have been victorious in 31, or 39.7%, of the 78 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Pittsburgh has been listed as an underdog of +215 or more on two occasions this season and won both games.
• The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 31.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 51 of its 99 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Pirates are 44-55-0 against the spread in their 99 games that had a posted line this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Yu Darvish

• When Darvish starts, his team is 8-9-0 against the spread this season.
• The right-hander allowed four hits in six scoreless innings pitched against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.
• Darvish has seven starts in a row of five innings or more.
• In 17 appearances this season, he has finished two without allowing an earned run.
• Darvish’s team has been victorious in 46.2% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 6-7.
• In games Darvish has started, his team is 8-9.
• Out of Darvish’s 17 starts with a total this season, eight have hit the over.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Quinn Priester

• Priester (0-1) starts for the Pirates, his second of the season.
• The right-hander last appeared on Monday against the Cleveland Guardians, when he tossed 5 1/3 innings, allowing seven earned runs while giving up seven hits.
• The Pirates were the moneyline underdog for one Priester start this season — they lost.
• His team has lost the only matchup he’s appeared in this season.
• Priester’s lone start with a total this season went over.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Padres Hitting Trends

• The Padres have hit at least two round-trippers in 43 games this season, and are 24-19 in those contests.
• San Diego is 19-8 in games this season when it has put up at least five extra-base hits.
• The club has collected at least eight hits in 54 games this season, and is 37-17 in those contests.
• San Diego has a 40-7 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
• The Padres are 26-18 over the 44 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Pirates Hitting Trends

• They have won 18 of the 24 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
• Pittsburgh has won 16 of its 18 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
• They have a record of 30-13 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
• Pittsburgh has won 27 of its 33 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• In 27 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 13-14

Padres vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Padres (-261)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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