Patriots vs. Commanders prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NFL picks, Week 9 best bets from proven model

The Washington Commanders look to get back in the playoff hunt as they travel north to face the New England Patriots on Sunday. Washington (3-5) gave the league's top team, Philadelphia, a great fight in a 38-31 loss in Week 8. New England (2-6) fell at Miami, 38-31. The Patriots have won the last four meetings between these two teams, including a 33-7 road victory in 2019. New England is 2-6 against the spread, while Washington is 3-4-1 ATS in 2023.

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET. New England is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Commanders odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under is 41.5. Before making any Commanders vs. Patriots picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 174-1223 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 28-15 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Commanders vs. Patriots and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 9 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Commanders:

• Patriots vs. Commanders spread: Patriots -2.5
• Patriots vs. Commanders over/under: 41.5 points
• Patriots vs. Commanders money line: Patriots -151, Commanders +128
• Patriots vs. Commanders picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Patriots vs. Commanders live stream: fubo (try for free)
  

Why the Commanders can cover

Commanders quarterback Sam Howell, despite leading the NFL in sacks taken with 41, continues to show progress in Washington's system. Last week against Philadelphia, he completed 39 of 52 passes for 397 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception. On the season, Howell has thrown for 13 touchdown passes and rushed for one score, leading an offense that averages 21.4 points per game.

There is concern that Washington might be giving up on 2023 and planning for the future, as they dealt top defensive linemen Chase Young (to San Francisco) and Montez Sweat (to Chicago) before the league's trade deadline on Tuesday. Fortunately for the Commanders, they face the second least potent offense, as New England is averaging only 14.8 points per game this season. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

Mac Jones' Patriots' tenure seems to be shaky as the quarterback hasn't improved much, if at all, in his third season as a pro. In last week's loss at Miami, Jones completed 19 of 29 passes for 161 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception. With no viable options behind him, coach Bill Belichick will likely stick with the former Alabama QB for the duration of the season though Jones' long term future with New England seems to be in question.

For the Patriots to have success in this matchup, it's likely that running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott will need to find success against a Commanders unit surrendering 117.4 yards rushing per game. Disappointingly, New England's top two running backs are combining to average only 70.9 yards per game rushing, in part because of game flow and New England having to come from behind in most games. With leading receiver Kendrick Bourne out for the season with a knee injury, Stevenson will be relied on more in the passing game, where he only has 25 catches in 2023 coming off 69 last season. See which team to pick here.

How to make Patriots vs. Commanders picks

The model has simulated Commanders vs. Patriots 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's Commanders vs. Patriots pick at SportsLine.