Patriots vs. Lions prediction, odds, spread, line: 2022 NFL picks, Week 5 best bets from proven computer model

The New England Patriots are coming off a 27-24 overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers last weekend. The Detroit Lions are looking to rebound from a 48-45 loss against the Seattle Seahawks in a Week 4 offensive shootout. Quarterback Mac Jones is doubtful for NewEngland, so rookie Bailey Zappe will make his first career start against Detroit. New York has won four of the past five meetings with Detroit, but the Lions have won the last two.

Patriots vs. Lions is a Week 5 NFL game. The Patriots are favored by 3 points. SportsLine's computer model has made its picks and NFL picks for the game and is sharing them here.

Patriots vs. Lions is a NFL game. The Patriots are favored by 3 points.

The Patriots will likely be led by their third-string quarterback, rookie fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe. Zapke was sharp in relief of Brian Hoyer in Week 4. The Lions defense is struggling and is last in the league in total yards and points allowed per game.

Detroit lost 48-45 to Seattle Seahawks last week. TE T.J. Hockenson caught eight passes for two touchdowns and 179 yards. Jamaal Williams has replaced the injured Swift and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (6). The key for Detroit will be the performance of its defense.

The model simulates Patriots vs. Lions 10,000 times and it's picking the Patriots. It's leaning Over on the point total and says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of time.