Patriots vs. Lions prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NFL picks, Week 5 best bets from proven computer model

The New England Patriots host the Detroit Lions at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in the latest Caesars Sportsbook odds. Quarterback Mac Jones is questionable for NewEngland, while wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown remains questionable and running back D'Andre Swift is expected to miss his second straight game for Detroit.

Patriots vs. Lions is a Week 5 NFL game. The Patriots are favored by 3 points. SportsLine's computer model has made its picks and NFL picks for the game and is sharing them here.

Patriots vs. Lions is a NFL game. The Patriots are favored by 3 points.

The Patriots lost to the Green Bay Packers in overtime last Sunday. Brian Hoyer was injured and Bailey Zappe was forced to play quarterback. The Patriots defense will be tested by the Lions' top-ranked offense. Detroit's defense ranks last in the league in total yards and points allowed per game.

Detroit lost 48-45 to Seattle Seahawks last week. TE T.J. Hockenson caught eight passes for two touchdowns and 179 yards. Jamaal Williams has replaced the injured Swift and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (6). The key for Detroit will be the performance of its defense.

The model simulates Patriots vs. Lions 10,000 times and it's picking the Patriots. It's leaning Over on the point total and says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of time.