PGA Picks: The Players Championship Predictions and Golf Odds

Welcome to The Players week, folks! Bay Hill Club & Lodge provided the most difficult test of the year up to this point, but players will have to shift focus to the challenging TPC Sawgrass for the biggest purse of the season. The field is loaded, as 46 of the top 50 golfers in the world will be competing, led by defending champion Scottie Scheffler at 5-1 odds. The Players, known as the fifth major, features the best the PGA Tour has to offer and presents one of the more challenging layouts in professional golf. Doc’s Sports will break down some of the best options for this upcoming weekend below.  

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A Look at the Field

Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks

Scottie Scheffler +500 – Rory Mcllroy +1200 – Xander Schauffele +2000 – Justin Thomas +2200

Patrick Cantlay +2500 – Max Homa +2500 – Viktor Hovland +2500 – Collin Morikawa +2800

Jordan Spieth +3000 – Will Zalatoris +3000 – Shane Lowry +3500 – Hideki Matsuyama +3500

Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets

TPC Sawgrass is a staple on the PGA Tour and was designed by Pete Dye in 1980. The course has evolved over the years, but most of the new renovations took place in 2016 by Dye’s group. The defining element of this tough track is that danger lurks in every corner. One misstep can take you from contention to having a very bad day. Water is technically in play on all 18 holes, and it is the most penal course on the PGA Tour. The difference between an eagle attempt and scrambling for a double bogey is mere inches. The closing three holes is one of the best finishes in all the sport. The par-5 16th hole plays as one of the easiest from a scoring average but has a massive amount of water in play. The 17th hole is one of the most famous in professional golf with the island-green par-3. The final hole is the toughest on the entire course, as it winds its way around water from tee to green. Even with the amount of water in play, there are still 92 bunkers as well scattered throughout the layout. Last season they changed the rough from 2.5 inches to 3.5 inches, so hitting the fairways is extremely important this week. The course plays as a par-72 and measures in at 7,275 yards.

Max Homa +2500

Homa has been quietly, but surely rounding into form after a few bad starts at the WM Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach. He is heading into TPC Sawgrass off a strong T8 finish last week at Bay Hill and finished T16 the week prior at the Genesis. His putting has been incredible, gaining a combined 8.7 strokes over his past two starts. Max is known for bringing his best to the tougher courses on the PGA Tour. The six-time PGA Tour winner has finished T13 and T6 over his past two starts at this event. If you analyze all the players with more than one career start at TPC Sawgrass, no one has gained more from tee-to-green per round than Homa. He has now finished T16 or better in 19 of his past 28 PGA Tour starts dating back to the 2023 Sentry while only missing four cuts in that stretch. His 25-1 price tag is worth considering this week to stand victorious on Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama +3500

Matsuyama has been on a roll of late and betting on momentum is never a bad thing. He won the Genesis Invitational two starts ago and followed that up with a solid T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. His putter failed him on Sunday at Bay Hill or he would have had a much higher finish. Overall, he has tallied four top-22 finishes in his last five starts. To put it in perspective over his current run in his last five starts, only Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, and Andrew Novak have averaged more Total Strokes per round than Matsuyama. Not to mention, he loves TPC Sawgrass. The Japan native has six top-25 finishes over his past eight starts, including three top-eights. He was also the first-round leader of this event in 2020 before being cancelled due to Covid-19. His 35-1 price tag provides a ton of value with Matsuyama on a heater of late and his strong iron play.

Russell Henley +5500

Henley has a reputation for doing his best work on shorter Bermuda tracks that require precision. His putter has been his weakness throughout his professional career, but he has shown flashes on Bermudagrass from time to time. Luckily, we have him in a solid spot with his putter heating up during the first two weeks in Florida. He was near the top of the putting statistics at PGA National and Bay Hill, which are also Bermuda greens. He is coming off a T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he shot 7-under par for the tournament. His ball-striking is his strength and that showed last week. The four-time PGA Tour winner is in a great spot with a 55-1 price tag.

Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week:

To win: Homa, Matsuyama, Henley