Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (65-75) and Atlanta Braves (91-48) begin a 3-game series at Truist Park Friday. First pitch is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Pirates hit the road after taking 2 of 3 at home against the Milwaukee Brewers. In splitting their 4-games against the Braves this season, both teams have scored 25 runs. Pittsburgh is 10-10 against the NL East on the season.

Atlanta lost 2 of 3 to the St. Louis to began their 6-game homestand. They nearly allowed 10 runs per game in that series. The Braves are 45-24 at Truist Park this season and have scored the 2nd-most runs per game at home (5.87).

Pirates at Braves projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Keller (11-8, 3.93 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 169 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 4-2 win at St. Louis Cardinals last Friday
• Last start vs. Braves: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 8-6 home loss on Aug. 8
• 2023 road stats: 5-5, 4.62 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 45 ER), .262 OBA in 15 starts

Elder (11-4, 3.42 ERA) will make his 29th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 173 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 4-2 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday
• Only start vs. Pirates: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-5 road loss on Aug. 10
• 2023 home stats: 6-1, 3.02 ERA (80 1/3 IP, 27 ER), .232 opponent batting average (OBA) in 14 starts

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Pirates at Braves odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:08 a.m. ET.

Pirates at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Pirates 3

PASS.

I believe the Braves get the victory but not enough to put down more than 2 units to win 1 back. Atlanta is in a bit of a lull especially after losing at series at home to 1 of the worst teams in baseball. Just let this bet go and look toward the total in this game.

PASS.

Again, as stated, I am just not as confident as usual when it comes to the Braves at home. I’ll stay away from this and look to the total.

BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).

This will be a tight low-scoring affair. The Pirates have their All-Star pitcher on the mound and while his results have been very mixed on the road, I believe he keeps this struggling offense in check. Keller has allowed more than 3 ER just once in his last 7 starts.

Elder has had a fantastic 1st full season up with the big club. After a bit of a mid-season slump, it seems like he has righted the ship allowing more than 1 ER in just one of his last 4 starts.