Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks & predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (59-50) welcome the Kansas City Royals (35-75) to Citizens Bank Park Friday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals at Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since 2019

The Phillies took 3 of 4 games at the Miami Marlins to open the week, including a 4-2 win Thursday, as they positioned themselves into an NL Wild Card spot. Philadelphia is 6-3 over its last 9 games and 28-20 at home this season.

Despite being in 5th place in the AL Central, the Royals have won 6 straight games and 7 of their last 9. They swept the New York Mets in a 3-game series from Tuesday-Thursday, winning 9-2 in the finale. Kansas City is 14-39 on the road this season.

Royals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Jordan Lyles vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Lyles (2-12, 6.15 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 112 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 10-7 win vs. Minnesota Twins Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 1-6, 7.52 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 44 ER) in 10 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 1-1, 42 IP, 14 ER, 43 H, 14 BB, 32 K in 7 starts and 4 relief appearances

Nola (9-7, 4.43 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 138 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 7 R (5 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 7-6 loss at Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
• 2023 home stats: 4-2, 3.27 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 19 ER) in 8 starts
• Career vs. Royals: 0-1, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 2016 loss

Royals at Phillies odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:55 a.m. ET.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Royals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Royals 2

PASS.

There’s just not much value on a moneyline wager. The Phillies (-225) have a strong home record while the Royals (+185) have the worst road record in the entire league.

The moneyline odds for Kansas City are justified but it’s still unplayable despite its recent 6-game winning streak. The Phillies are too expensive as well.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-120).

The Royals are the worst team in the league on the run line on the road while the Phillies are the worst team in the league on the run line at home.

The difference is how bad the Royals have been as an underdog on the run line. They are just 41-54 on the run line as an underdog. The Royals are also just 20-33 as a road underdog — a 37.7% cover rate.

Kansas City has been awful with Lyles on the mound, and he’s given up at least 3 earned runs in 6 of his last 8 appearances. Expect Philadelphia to end the Royals’ win streak.

Take PHILLIES -1.5 (-120).

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

BET UNDER 9 (-110).

The Royals are just 51-57-2 O/U this season while Philadelphia is 44-56-9, the 8th-worst Over win percentage in the majors. Kansas City has cashed the Under in 2 of its last 4 games and is 6-7-1 O/U in its last 14.

Philadelphia has scored 4 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 5 games. It also has gone Under in 3 of its last 4 games as well. Considering the season-long and recent trends for both teams, take UNDER 9 (-110).

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup