Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions
The Pittsburgh Pirates (51-62) welcome the Atlanta Braves (71-40) to PNC Park Wednesday for the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
The Pirates lost 8-6 Tuesday as they failed to build off Monday’s series-opening 7-6 victory. Pittsburgh is 27-29 at home and 6-4 over its last 10 games.
Atlanta has been among the best teams in the majors and sits 10 1/2 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. It is 6-4 over its last 10 and 34-20 on the road this season.
Braves at Pirates projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Quinn Priester
Fried (3-1, 1.69 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 32 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 8-0 road win vs. Chicago Cubs Friday
- 2023 road splits: 3-0, 0.47 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 14 H) in 4 starts
Priester (2-1, 8.69 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.78 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 19 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-4 road win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 10.45 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 12 ER) in 2 starts
Braves at Pirates odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:06 a.m. ET.
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Braves at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Pirates 4
AVOID.
There’s no value in betting on Atlanta (-300) with such steep odds as a road favorite. Similarly, Fried has been fantastic since returning from the IL and squares off against a rookie, so there’s very little interest in calling the upset from Pittsburgh (+240) either.
The Braves are 21-23 on the run line as road favorites while the Pirates are 20-19 as home underdogs.
This size of spread should help Pittsburgh as well. Atlanta has the 6th-worst covering rate against non-division opponents at 37-46 ATS while Pittsburgh is 41-42 on the run line against non-division foes.
The Braves are 4-2 in Fried’s 6 appearances but would be 3-3 with a spread of 2.5. Considering the season-long records in this scenario, LEANPIRATES +1.5 (+100) but only for a partial unit.
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BET OVER 9.5 (+100).
If there’s one thing both teams have been good at this season, it is cashing the Over. Atlanta sits 2nd in the majors with a 60-48-3 O/U record, and Pittsburgh has the 6th-best Over record at 59-50-4.
Both the first two games of this series went well north of the total. Pittsburgh has a rookie that has struggled at home on the mound and has gone Over in 5 of its last 7. Atlanta has gone Over in 4 straight and in 5 of its last 6.
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