Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (76-61) and San Diego Padres (65-74) play the 2nd of a 3-game set at Petco Park Tuesday. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 4-1

The Phils stormed out to an 8-1 lead Monday night and held on for the 9-7 win. They have now won 7 of 10 and hold a 5 1/2-game lead on the top NL Wild Card spot.

San Diego fought back admirably Monday but was in too deep of a hole. That’s pretty much on par with the Padres’ season thus far. They’re 11-19 over the last 30 games and 6 1/2 games out of the final NL Wild Card.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Pedro Avila

Lorenzen (8-8, 3.73 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 137 2/3 innings for the Phillies and Detroit Tigers.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K last Tuesday against Los Angeles Angels
• Home/road splits: 3-4, 3.77 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 10 road starts; 5-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 13 home starts

Avila (0-2, 2.67 ERA) makes his 4th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 30 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 1 ER (6 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K Thursday against San Francisco Giants
• Home/road splits: 0-1, 1.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 in 14 1/3 home IP; 0-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 16 road IP

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Phillies at Padres odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Padres 4

Lorenzen hasn’t been great since his no-hitter as he has allowed 13 ER in 10 IP, but the Phils still have the edge on the mound. Avila has watched 11 runs cross the plate in his last 2 starts, but only 6 were earned.

Philadelphia hit 3 homers Monday night in a big ballpark, and they have scored 4 or more in 7 straight games and 9 of 10.

Take the PHILLIES (-115).

As mentioned, both pitchers have not been stingy with the scoresheet, and both teams have plated 4 or more runs in 4 straight games. This figures to be another track meet.

Take OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-105).

The Phils are 7-3 O/U over the last 10, and the Padres are 6-3-1. The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the teams as well. Both starters have helped the Over cash in 3 straight starts.

This is a pretty clear decision – take the OVER 9 (+100).