Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies G1 odds, picks and predictions
The Atlanta Braves (93-49) and the Philadelphia Phillies (78-64) open a 4-game series with Game 1 of a doubleheader Monday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 4-2
The Braves have already clinched a playoff berth, and they’re currently 15 games clear in thr NL East of the 2nd-place Phillies with 20 games remaining for both teams. Atlanta has a league-leading plus-238 run differential, too.
Atlanta took 2 of 3 games from the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, but it is just 3-4 in the last 7 games. The Under cashed in Sunday’s series finale with the Bucs, but the Over is 5-1 in the last 6 outings, all at home.
The Phillies aren’t likely to win the NL East, but they’re still in great shape for a spot in the postseason, with a 96.5% chance of making the playoffs. Philadelphia enters this series with a 42-28 record at home, the 3rd-most victories at home in the NL.
Philadelphia dropped 2 of 3 games to the visiting Miami Marlins over the weekend, and it is just 4-6 in the last 10 games. Opposite of Atlanta, the Phillies have cashed the Under in 4 of the last 5 games overall.
Braves at Phillies – Game 1 projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Taijuan Walker
Morton (14-11, 3.32 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 151 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 3 K in 3-1 road loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday
- 2023 road splits: 7-6, 3.42 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 2 HR, .260 opponent batting average (OBA) in 14 starts
- 2023 vs. Philadelphia: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 9 K in 2-1 home loss May 27
Walker (15-5, 4.15 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 147 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 9-7 road win vs. the San Diego Padres last Monday
- 2023 home splits: 7-2, 3.26 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 8 HR, .210 OBA in 14 starts
- 2023 vs. Atlanta: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 6-4 road win May 26
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Braves at Phillies – Game 1 odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:01 a.m. ET.
Braves at Phillies – Game 1 picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Braves 3
The PHILLIES (+115) are a solid value as short ‘dogs at home in the front end of the double dip.
Walker has been tremendous at home this season, with the opposition barely hitting above the Mendoza line against him at Citizens Bank Park this season. He has won 7 of his 9 decisions at home, too.
On the flip side, Morton is just one game above .500 on the road. However, he has been a victim of a late of offensive support in a lot of those away starts. This will be a well-pitched game on both sides, with the home side eking out a win in the opener.
The PHILLIES +1.5 (-135) aren’t priced out of line if you would like a little insurance against the 90-win Braves -1.5 (+110).
Philadelphia has won 8 of its last 12 games at home. The Phillies haven’t been underdogs at home much, going 8-6 in 14 games on the run line as a ‘dog at Citizens Bank Park this season, winning 8 of the games outright.
UNDER 10 (-115) is the lean, cashing in 4 of the last 5 games for the Phillies.
While the Over has dominated for the Braves lately, the Under is 2-0 in the previous 2 meetings between these teams in Philadelphia this season, while going 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings, including an Under result in Morton’s previous outing against Philadelphia, and a push in Walker’s assignment against Atlanta.
