Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

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The Baltimore Orioles (62-38) continue their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (53-47) Tuesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Baltimore leads 1-0

In Game 1 of their series Monday, the pitchers brought their A game. Orioles RHP Dean Kremer threw 7 innings and allowed 1 ER on 3 hits while  Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez responded with 7 IP and 2 ER allowed with 8 K’s.

In the end Baltimore pulled off the 3-2 win thanks to LF Colton Cowser, who despite batting .128 hit the go-ahead double in the top of the 9th inning. The Phillies had 2 on with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th, but CF Johan Rojas grounded out to end the game.

Orioles at Phillies projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Gibson (9-6, 4.76 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 121 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 4-3 road win vs. Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday
• 2023 road stats: 5-3, 4.23 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 34 ER) in 12 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 0-0, 6.00 ERA (6 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start

Walker (11-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 107 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 home loss versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.
• 2023 home stats: 5-1, 2.76 ERA (49 IP, 15 ER) in 9 starts
• Career vs. Baltimore: 4-1, 2.45 ERA (44 IP, 12 ER) in 8 starts

Orioles at Phillies odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:12 a.m. ET.

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Orioles at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Orioles 5

It’s tough to bet against this Baltimore team with their 32-18 road record, but there are a few reasons to pick the Phillies.

Orioles pitcher Gibson struggles against the National League. In 5 games he is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.

Phillies RHP Walker is the opposite, sporting a 5-1 record from his 7 starts with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Plus at home Walker has been impressive, allowing a .178 batting average and .314 slugging. Add that with Philadelphia’s 20-13 interleague record and I like the Phillies.

LEAN PHILLIES -120.

While I’m backing the Phillies to win, their stats against the spread are  embarassing. At home the Phillies have the worst ATS record in MLB (14-32), covering in just 30% of those games. The Orioles are the exact opposite, having the best ATS record (37-13).

As a favorite Philadelphia also fails to cover more often than not (23-41) while Baltimore is 26-8 as a road underdog. Lastly, the Phillies have been favorites for 9 straight games (not counting Tuesday) and have won and covered in just 2 of them. Therefore AVOID this line.

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Philadelphia is one of the better Under teams, where at home they have a 24-17-5 Under record. Baltimore, on the other hand, likes the Over and has a 27-18-5 Over record.

That being said, the Phillies break this trend coming off a loss where they actually have a 53.5% Over rate (23-20-3). After Monday’s game gave us just 5 total runs, I see the bats showing up Tuesday.

LEAN OVER 9.5 (+100).

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