Pocono 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023

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21 July 2023

Pocono 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023

Before the drivers take the green flag at “The Tricky Triangle” on Sunday, check out our HighPoint.com 400 picks and predictions for Pocono Raceway based on the best available NASCAR odds via our best sports betting apps.

The NASCAR Cup Series will once again be racing in the northeast this weekend. Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA, will be the site of Sunday’s HighPoint.com 400. With only seven races remaining before the start of the playoffs, the intensity on the track only figures to continue ramping up.

Last year’s visit to “The Tricky Triangle” saw Denny Hamlin cross the finish line first. However, the No. 11 car was eventually disqualified from that win due to post-race inspection failure. The same happened to then-Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch, thus resulting in third-place finisher Chase Elliott being declared the race winner despite never leading a single lap.

When it comes to handicapping, Pocono is one of the fastest non-superspeedway tracks on the NASCAR circuit. Of course, the unique triangular configuration that consists of three very different turns only furthers the track’s one-of-a-kind flare. There are several drivers who have achieved a great deal of success at Pocono over the years, and the betting odds for Sunday’s race reflect those stats in a big way.

Here are our best bets and 2023 HighPoint.com 400 picks for Sunday’s action at Pocono Raceway (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Pocono odds

Pocono best bets

Outright winner: Kyle Larson (+650 via DraftKings) ⭐
Top 10 finish: Alex Bowman (+135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Group F matchup: Michael McDowell (+250 via SuperBook) vs. Ryan Preece, Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric ⭐⭐⭐

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HighPoint.com 400 predictions

Outright winner: Kyle Larson (+650 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐️

To say that Kyle Larson is overdue for a win at Pocono would be an understatement. Over the course of his NASCAR Cup Series career, he has virtually done everything here except win outright. Surely no one has forgotten the first race of the 2021 doubleheader, when he held a commanding lead over the field only to blow a tire on the very last lap. He had to settle for a ninth-place finish as a result.

Despite the tough break and still having yet to reach victory lane, Larson has compiled very impressive stats at Pocono over the years. That ninth-place finish in the first race two years ago is actually the low point in his last four starts here. Larson was runner-up in the second race of 2021 and finished fifth last year to match his result from 2019. He also won both stages in the first leg of the 2019 doubleheader with his 26th-place finish hardly being indicative of how well he ran.

While he does have two fewer starts than other veteran Cup Series drivers due to missing the 2020 season, Larson’s average finish of 5.3 is second to none in the last three years. His average driver rating of 104.5 over that same span places him only behind Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch in that category. Larson had strong runs here while driving for Chip Ganassi, but he has only been stronger since joining Hendrick Motorsports.

Statistically speaking, it would be easy to argue in favor of Hamlin, Busch, or the red-hot Martin Truex Jr. to win this week. That said, the returns on any of those drivers are minimal. Larson is coming off a quiet third-place run at New Hampshire. DraftKings’ +650 price is about as good of a deal as one could ask for this week on a driver of Larson’s caliber.

Top 10 finish: Alex Bowman (+135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

We are staying on the Hendrick Motorsports bandwagon for our next selection. When Larson’s tire went flat on the final lap two years ago, teammate Alex Bowman was the beneficiary, swooping in to score the victory. The fact that he was in position to do so wasn’t exactly a huge surprise.

Bowman has largely been very solid at Pocono throughout his NASCAR Cup Series career. Spanning nine total starts, he has compiled an average finish of 13.3 with the lone win, an additional top-three, and four top-10 finishes. He also finished 11th here just last year, which marked the low-point in his last four starts.

The 2023 season has been very disappointing for Bowman to date. That said, the only real reason he is sitting outside of the current playoff cutline is due to a back injury that led to him missing multiple races in the spring. The fact that he is only 42 points out despite those missed races speaks to the No. 48 team’s consistency.

While Bowman is a long shot to win the HighPoint.com 400 for a reason, his strong history at Pocono suggests that a top-10 finish is more than doable. This play becomes that much more appealing thanks to BetMGM dangling a +135 price. The same prop is listed at -110 odds at the other best sports betting sites in the market.

Group F matchup: Michael McDowell (+250 via SuperBook) vs. Ryan Preece, Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric ⭐⭐⭐

When it comes to NASCAR betting odds and prices, the payouts available in the four-driver group matchups are usually tough to beat. This week, Michael McDowell comes in as a +250 favorite in Group F at SuperBook, a return hardly worth sneezing at.

Despite Front Row Motorsports being a smaller race team, McDowell would be in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs if they started today. Be it the result of strategy calls or simply exceeding expectations when it comes to car performance, the No. 34 team has been a tremendous story this season. McDowell has scored top-10 finishes in four of the last six races. He was also a respectable 13th at New Hampshire one week ago.

Joining McDowell in Group F this week are three fellow Fords. Team Penske’s Austin Cindric (+290) has been enduring a miserable sophomore season in the Cup Series. He also only has one prior Cup start at Pocono from a year ago, in which he wound up finishing 31st.

The other two contenders in this group both hail from the Stewart-Haas Racing camp. Neither Ryan Preece (+265) nor Chase Briscoe (+285) have been running well this season. The two have also only combined for a single top-10 finish at Pocono across nine total starts. Preece only achieved that eighth-place result back in 2021 due to late-race fuel mileage strategy. Briscoe’s best finish in three Cup Series starts to date is 15th.

While McDowell has had his fair share of struggles at Pocono over the years, he does have two top-10 finishes in the last five races, including a sixth-place result just last year. McDowell has been outperforming his group cohorts on a near weekly basis of late and is worth firing on as the favorite.