Premier League betting: Back Fabian Schar to score first for set piece kings Newcastle at Bournemouth
Fabian Schar to score at 28/1 rates as a best bet for the weekend for our tipster Jones Knows, who is also backing Eric Dier's fouls when Spurs play Leicester.
How did we get on last weekend?
Two points squandered as although Tottenham to avoid defeat to Man City and under 3.5 goals copped in fine style at 2/1, the 13/2 double was already dead by then as BTTS and over 2.5 goals in Brighton vs Bournemouth failed to deliver.
We can file it under the good loser category though as judged on the performance metrics the game should have sailed over the three goals line: 3.6 worth of total expected goals, 32 shots and five big chances created. I had a front-row seat of the action from the press box, too. Danny Welbeck and Denis Undav were given an angry stare by yours truly as they went back down the tunnel as they put in a masterclass of missing chances.
Looking at the first goalscorers across the Premier League card last weekend did bring me out in a cold sweat. The Craig Dawson, Ben Mee and James Tarkowski treble would have paid 47,000/1. Years of backing centre-backs to score could have all been worth it. Most life-changing bets are ones glittered in fortune but that one would have been within my grasp of using logic such is my obsession and knowledge of the centre-back scoring from set-pieces scene. Yet, my life remains unchanged.
P+L = +13
It seemed logical to combine my two strongest fancies of the weekend into a double as both single prices look very appealing - as are the higher lines for both selections.
There certainly looks more aggression in the way the Spurs back-line are approaching games - as seen by Eric Dier's two performances at Fulham and City. He is tending to move into a midfield position at times when Spurs are hunting the ball back - it was a ploy that completely suffocated the supply to Erling Haaland last weekend. This slight positional tweak by Dier is seeing his fouls-committed data taking a sharp rise, to the extent he made two fouls in both victories over Fulham and City.
Assuming he'll be tasked with a similar role in this one where he should come into contact with James Maddison, who has drawn 2.52 fouls per game this season, then he is of interest in the player fouls market. Dier is 8/11 with Sky Bet to make just one foul and 4/1 to make two or more.
And, we pinpointed the likelihood of Everton's offside numbers increasing under Sean Dyche last week as the Evens for three or more offsides against Arsenal landed. There still looks a chance to get ahead of the market for this fixture by repeating the same bet, which is available at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
Dyche's Burnley always were vulnerable to the Liverpool offside trap during their battles with Jurgen Klopp's men in recent years, being caught offside 54 times in 12 fixtures - working to a 4.5 average per game. It's almost guaranteed that Everton will play direct into Dominic Calvert-Lewin once again and Liverpool's defence are encouraged to be aggressive and play high when tasked with sustaining attacks against direct teams. Brentford, who play a similar style to Dyche's ways, have been caught offside 18 times in three fixtures with Liverpool since promotion, including racking up seven offsides in each of the last two meetings.
Newcastle have fired 120 shots from set-piece situations to a backdrop of an expected goals figure of 11.32 - the best returns of any team across both metrics. It's therefore a huge underperformance to have only merited six goals via corners and free-kicks this season - seven teams have scored more.
Bottom of that list are Bournemouth, who have conceded 101 shots on their goal with 13 resulting in goals.
Newcastle actually haven't scored via a set-piece since Joelinton's goal against Leicester on Boxing Day, but Fabian Schar has had 12 shots on goal since that game to a backdrop of 1.34 of expected goals. This all equates to the 28/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring first looking particularly juicy. He's going to find the net soon, let's hope our timing is right.
Sven Botman (50/1) and Dan Burn (50/1) also venture up for set-pieces and are also worth considering in a game which should see Newcastle get back to winning ways.
