Premier League predictions: Manchester United to sink to new low at home to Luton Town
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League action, sprinkling his betting analysis and predictions over an exciting weekend.
Wolves vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm
Wolves might just be the kryptonite to Spurs' superman football.
We'll know so much more about Tottenham after this one. Are they serious players towards the top end of the Premier League or are they just an exhibition team?
With Destiny Udogie and Cristian Romero suspended and influential summer purchase Micky van de Ven injured, can the makeshift defence play with the same cohesion, bravery and authority that provides the platform for Spurs to play such aggressive, attack-minded football?
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Spurs were magnificent in the defeat to Chelsea, embracing the manager's philosophy by giving everything in their pursuit of a result with nine-men. But any opposition playing with half a brain should have won that second half 7-0 - it was kamikaze football from Tottenham. And embarrassing for large parts by Chelsea.
Spurs are great fun but unsustainable.
That's been my theory regarding them - and this looks the time to take them on against a side who are very comfortable soaking up pressure and springing on the counter-attack to exploit space. Wolves are at their happiest when relinquishing possession - as seen in their home draws with Newcastle and Aston Villa and of course, the 2-1 win over Manchester City.
No team have created more transition opportunities (614) or completed more fast breaks (13) than Gary O'Neil's side this season, providing huge evidence that they possess the perfect style of football to hurt Ange Postecoglou's potentially malfunctioning defence.
The market is moving all the time in Wolves' favour and this seems a gamble to jump on with 12/5 on offer for the home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Any winners for Jones Knows last weekend?
- Manchester United to beat Fulham & under 2.5 goals: 4/1
- Manchester City to beat Bournemouth & over 3.5 goals: Evs
- Nottingham Forest double chance vs Villa: 6/5
- Luton 4+ corners vs Liverpool: 10/11
- Wins for Man Utd, Man City, Brentford, Palace & Everton vs Brighton to draw
Arsenal vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Vincent Kompany did warn us in pre-season that it would take time for Burnley to find their feet in the Premier League. Well, it's November now and the Clarets are still stumbling around, searching for inspiration. It's now just four points from their 11 Premier League matches. I haven't completely given up hope on Kompany finding the formula and delivering on his assumption that results will eventually come but trying to score a goal against Arsenal is hard graft, especially for a team lacking in so much confidence.
The Gabriel and William Saliba axis remains the most defensively secure partnership in the Premier League. It's difficult to sustain territory against Arsenal let alone try and create clear cut chances. In their last three home games playing together, the Arsenal duo have allowed the opposition just six shots and that included a fixture with Manchester City.
An Arsenal win to nil at 5/6 with Sky Bet is probably the answer in a very dull betting heat.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Crystal Palace vs Everton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There are lots of reasons to take the away win seriously here at 2/1 with Sky Bet. Sean Dyche has got Everton tremendously organised and dangerous in the final third while those that like to put credence into head-to-head records will be delighted to note that Everton have lost just one of the last 17 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace. Eberechi Eze is back though for Roy Hodgson which does temper my enthusiasm for a hefty Everton wager.
Meanwhile, Sky Bet's algorithms haven't really caught up with Abdoulaye Doucoure's increased attacking threat regarding his shots on target prices. In games against teams outside the current top five, Doucoure has hit a shot on target in his last nine Premier League matches, registering 14 shots on target in total. With this game fitting that trend in terms of opposition and Everton fully in form, the 10/11 with Sky Bet on Doucoure having at least one shot on target does seem rather juicy.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Luton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you could combine the natural talent in the Manchester United side with the application in the Luton Town side, you'd have yourself a Premier League winning team. That's the conundrum to assess here from a betting point of view, do you take sheer talent to win the day or trust teamwork and desire to come out on top? I'd much rather be a layer than a backer at 1/3 with Sky Bet on Manchester United despite the obvious class divide.
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This is a team that have lost five of their last 10 home games in all competitions while all of their six Premier League wins this season have come with a one-goal margin of victory. Erik ten Hag is playing for win-ugly football. That makes the 4/5 with Sky Bet on Luton carrying a +2 goal handicap the likely starting point for a winner meaning we'll cop a return if Luton win, draw or lose by one goal. No matter the result though, the future looks bleak for Ten Hag. He is the 5/4 favourite with Sky Bet for the next manager to go. A defeat here will push him closer to the exit door.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Bournemouth vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
You'd be in line for a bravery award if taking the 4/6 with Sky Bet about Newcastle winning this encounter.
It's a price fraught with danger everywhere you look. Eddie Howe's team are a dangerous animal capable of running all over any team in Europe but they rely on high levels of intensity and physicality to produce their best output. This is currently a squad running close to empty after back-to-back monster fixtures against Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund.
This draining schedule has led to Newcastle having 10 senior players out injured or suspended for this one, including key man Bruno Guimaraes, who is suspended. Howe's side are winless in six Premier League games without the Brazilian with five of those six opponents starting the day in the bottom half of the table.
Bournemouth have failed to hit the heights expected under Andoni Iraola but their running and pressing stats do continue to offer hope for the manager. They rank second for pressures in the final third (behind Tottenham) and second for pressures overall. If they can channel this intensity, they could just match Newcastle in key areas. The 6/5 with Sky Bet for the Cherries to either win or draw is one of the best bets of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Aston Villa vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm
It's going to take a special team, capable of negotiating their way through Aston Villa's insane offside trap, to be able to break this sensational home run Unai Emery's team are on. Fulham haven't shown any evidence of late to suggest they are up for the job of ending Villa's 12-game winning streak.
Marco Silva's side have scored just nine goals in their last 11 Premier League games while Villa have scored 20 goals across their last four home matches. Such is their pace and power in attack added to their defensive unity, Villa will be popular in the market even at odds of 1/2 with Sky Bet. That rates their chance of victory at 66 per cent which looks a tad generous to my calculations. A way of bumping up the price to a more backable level is to take Villa on the -1 handicap at 13/8 with Sky Bet, meaning we need them to win by more than one goal to cop a full return - a line they have covered in nine of their last 11 victories in all competitions.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Brighton vs Sheffield United, Sunday 2pm
My Lewis Dunk free-kick adventure almost led me to treasure last weekend at 66/1 when his effort from outside the area was tipped over the crossbar by Jordan Pickford. That's now four shots from outside the area in his last five fixtures as the markets continue to underrate his chances of scoring from range. It remains an edge that needs backing. With him very much on free-kick duties and showing surprising ability from them, there's 12/1 with Sky Bet available on him hitting the target from outside the area and 22/1 about his chances of scoring from outside the box.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Liverpool vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm
It's about time Trent Alexander-Arnold upped his strike-rate in front of goal. Since undergoing the tactical tweak to play him more centrally, the England man has only scored once in 20 appearances - a disappointing return of a player with his undoubted quality playing in such an attack-minded side.
That could be about to change though looking at his shot numbers since returning from injury. He's had nine in his last three games - all coming from outside the box.
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And now Brentford are in town, who notoriously defend deep and allow opposition teams plenty of space outside their box. Alexander-Arnold has had 10 shots from outside the box against the Bees in the four Premier League meetings between the teams.
The 15/8 with Sky Bet for him to have a shot on target from outside the box looks to have potential - as does the 9/1 for him to score from outside the box. Remember, he is also on free-kicks which adds an extra avenue of attack for both bets.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I'm keen to take on West Ham at short prices where possible after playing in Europe on the Thursday. David Moyes seems a bit conflicted in his approach of late as he tries to find the balance of accommodating the raw talent of Mohammed Kudus into his side. His side are on a four-game winless run at present.
The raising of expectation levels both internally and externally at a football club rarely ends well for the man in the charge, especially one who has proven to have limitations working consistently to a high level. The Hammers are now getting to a stage where a more forward-thinking, attack-minded manager is probably best suited to taking the club to the next level. And, Steve Cooper should be top of their list - but that argument is for another day.
With Forest fancied to put on a good show for the win at their 3/1 quotes with Sky Bet, delving into the player prop markets is advised. My eyes are drawn to roaming left-back Harry Toffolo, fresh from two assists against Aston Villa, to register another at 6/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Chelsea vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Chelsea going off bigger than 4/1 with Sky Bet for a Premier League home match can't have happened for at least 20 years. But that's where the club are at. A million miles away from Manchester City, who should be able to deliver for punters that are willing to get involved at 8/11.
My betting instincts are drawn to prop markets involving former City youngster Cole Palmer. He's made a bright and confident start to life as a Chelsea player and will be looking to prove a point to his former employers. In just seven starts for his new club he's sprung to the fore, playing with an impressive responsibility. He's had 21 shots in that period and been carded twice in some all-action performances.
Using the Bet Builder function with Sky Bet, I'm happy to combine his yellow card price of 3/1 with him to have at least two shots on goal. It results in a tasty looking 9/2 shot to cheer on.
