Rangers-Orioles predictions: Pitching, unsung heroes and AL Division Series winner

Games 1 and 2 are on the East Coast, but the Rangers will host their first home playoff games at Globe Life Field at 7:08 p.m. Tuesday in Arlington. What will the series look like when things come to Texas?

Here’s what our panel of experts have to say about the series:

The Rangers made quick work of the Rays, and their starting pitching was dominant. Which Rangers starting pitcher is most important in the ALDS?

Cowlishaw: The answer remains Jordan Montgomery, although I suppose if Dane Dunning pitches twice, we may have to amend this. Montgomery is the guy who gives the Rangers the most confidence, elevated now by seven shutout innings in St. Petersburg. But assuming he goes Game 2, he’s facing an Orioles team that beat up lefties this year for a 36-17 record. The confidence will be sky-high on both benches for that one.

Grant: The easy answer is likely Game 1 starter Dane Dunning, who would be in line to start a Game 5, too. But let’s go with Game 3 starter Nathan Eovaldi. His start against Tampa Bay was first-half vintage Eovaldi, when he was as good as any pitcher in the AL. Come Game 3, he’ll either have a chance to stave off elimination, put the Rangers in command or potentially close out the series in Arlington. Eovaldi’s fastball stayed close to 95 mph, more in line with his season-long average, and like Jordan Montgomery of late, his pitch selection has been diverse and unpredictable.

McFarland:Dane Dunning, if only for the fact that both Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi have proven themselves in the postseason. Dunning was dubbed the MVP of this team’s pitching staff by Bruce Bochy, but has just two-thirds of an inning of playoff experience in his career. If Dunning can pitch well enough for the Rangers to win in Baltimore in his real postseason debut, things look mighty nice with Montgomery and Eovaldi handling the other two games to kick the series off.

Sherrington: Dane Dunning, because he starts Game 1. If he sets a tone and keeps the bullpen from getting overexposed, the Rangers stand a good chance of winning this series without going back to Baltimore. They know what they’re going to get from Montgomery and Eovaldi. Dunning is the key.

Evan Carter and Josh Jung were among the Rangers heroes in the AL Wild Card Series. Which Rangers need to step things up for the ALDS to ensure there’s

Cowlishaw: The Orioles don’t possess a leadoff hitter like Marcus Semien. It’s possible only the Dodgers and Astros do. Semien is capable of not just blasting home runs, but leading the team for 3-4 days, long enough to be the dominant hitter in a series. In meaningful early at-bats against the Rays, Semien wasn’t any good. That has to change for Texas to have a chance.

Grant: I’m not sure step up is the right word, but look: Adolis García is the emotional heartbeat of this team. His emotion and energy moves the team. Likewise, when he chases above the zone and doesn’t catch up to fastballs, it takes a toll. García got the Rangers’ offense started in Game 2 of the Wild Card series with a homer and this team is 27-9 when he hits one. If he goes, the Rangers go.

McFarland:Marcus Semien. He effectively serves two roles in the Rangers’ lineup: a leadoff hitter and a No. 3 hitter, so long as No. 8 hitter Josh Jung and No. 9 hitter Evan Carter continue to swing as they have (and, so long as Bochy doesn’t shift the lineup) to set the table for the top of the lineup. He went 1 for 9 in the Tampa Bay series with an RBI double in the later stages of game two as his lone hit.

Sherrington: Small sample size in Tampa, but Marcus Semien, the Rangers’ most consistent player all year, needs to return to form. What Bruce Bochy really needs, though, is find someone to hit third. Robbie Grossman’s not the answer. Maybe it’s time to go bold and try Evan Carter. Don’t want to put too much on his shoulders, but he’s responded well to everything else.

Will Max Scherzer pitch for the Rangers this postseason?

Cowlishaw: Have to guess no. His history with the Dodgers tells us he wants to be 100% or something very close to it before taking the mound. He’s a long way from that right now, based on everything that he has said.

Grant: Yes. Not sure it will go well because this is a tricky injury, but he seems determined and really tried to ramp things up on Wednesday. If there is any way, he will make himself available. I won’t be surprised if he’s the ALDS Game 4 starter. Because nothing Max does should be surprising.

McFarland:Yes, but it might not be until the ALCS (if the Rangers get there), and this isn’t the most ironclad “yes” ever offered. His Wednesday bullpen appeared to have gone well, and he may or may not pitch to live hitters on Friday. You can’t count Mad Max out too much.

Sherrington: Only if the Rangers make it to the World Series, and I’m not sure it’s a good idea even then. How much would he be? Fifty percent of his normal self? Seventy-five? Is that worth the risk of being able to pitch next spring? If there’s no danger, then no foul. You’ve got to like the competitiveness, I’ll say that.

Globe Life Field, the newest ballpark in baseball, will host its first Rangers playoff game since its opening. What kind of atmosphere and homefield advantage do you expect?

Cowlishaw: Similar to Globe Life Park, which was a great venue for the Rangers against the Yankees and Tigers in the ALCS and at least against the Cardinals in one World Series. We can only hope with the cooler temperatures coming we will see the roof open for a game or two which makes a dramatic improvement on the feel of the ballpark.

Grant: As if Rangers’ fans haven’t been traumatized enough, I think the whole season gave them whiplash. Just about the time people were willing to really buy in, the team hit its skid, then came one unpredictable week after another. It felt during the last home game against Seattle like they were really about to explode, and then the Rangers couldn’t put the division away. Maybe the fact that this team has won a playoff series and could be on the verge of going back to the ALCS will really energize fans, because Globe Life Field has the ability to be the loudest park in the majors. It just hasn’t felt that way yet.

McFarland:The fans showed up for the big games this season. There were 35,000-plus at each of the final three regular season home games against the Mariners, and the September series against the Astros drew relatively well, too. If there’s a chance to clinch the ALDS at home, the vibes could be strong.

Sherrington: The atmosphere needs to be a lot better than it’s been at any point this season. Rangers fans have been slow to embrace this group. Only Adolis Garcia gets much applause in introductions. There’s a lot to like about his team, on the field and off. Time for fans to get behind it and create an atmosphere that 20K couldn’t in Tampa.

Prediction time: Who wins the series and why?

Cowlishaw: Part of me believes the Orioles, reliant upon many young players, are destined to have a better win-loss record than Texas in 2024 but maybe not over the next week. But Baltimore won 101 games for a lot of reasons and this team isn’t nearly as void of its best players as the Rays were. The fans in Camden Yards have been waiting longer than Texas fans for a little excitement, so I think their hot bats and strong bullpen get the nod over the hot but wildly unpredictable Rangers. Orioles in 4.

Grant: I’ve become a big believer that time off is not a good thing in October. Teams that get byes, get a little out of sync. The Rangers have a hard road ahead of them. But their lineup is healthy, the bullpen seems in order and they’ve got a bit of an adrenaline rush coming off the win against Tampa Bay. And, besides, if I’ve learned anything in this crazy season, it’s to never count the Rangers out. Rangers in 5.

McFarland: The commanding two-game sweep of the 99-win Rays made this an easier choice. And, listen, this Texas team is prone to drastic swings. When they’re hot, they’re hot for five or six straight games. When they’re not, they’re not for five or six straight games. They’ll need that pattern to hold for this series. Rangers in 5.

Sherrington: If it goes five games, I don’t see the Rangers winning it. Asks too much of their depleted rotation. That’s why it’s so important for Dunning to win Game 1, then hand the baton to Montgomery and Eovaldi. That’s their best chance of advancing to the ALCS. Rangers in 4.