Rangers vs. Orioles odds: Who is favorite to win AL Divisional series in 2023 MLB playoffs

The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles will match up in the American League Divisional round of the 2023 MLB playoffs. Game 1 is set for Saturday, October 7, at Camden Yards.

Texas appeared to be taking on water in late September, losing the AL West to the Astros on the final day of the season and dropping all the way to the fifth seed of the AL bracket. But they outscored Tampa 11-0 over two games at Tropicana Field this week for a commanding sweep, getting great starts from Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi while exhibiting the sort of lineup depth that made them the AL’s highest-scoring offense in the regular season.

The top-seeded O’s, meanwhile, didn’t have nearly as stressful a September, winning 101 games — the only team to crack 100 in the AL this season — and holding off the Rays to win the AL East and secure home-field throughout the American League playoffs. Baltimore wasn’t exceptional in any one area — save maybe their bullpen, which will really miss injured closer Felix Bautista — but they were solid just about everywhere.

Let’s go over odds to win the series on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rangers vs. Orioles odds

This one is a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with both Texas and Baltimore currently at -110.

You can understand why oddsmakers would be impressed with how the Rangers have looked over the last two days, pasting a Rays team that won 99 games during the regular season while Eovaldi looked the best he has since coming off the IL last month. Still, I feel like there’s a bit of recency bias at play here, which creates a bit of value on the Orioles.

The argument isn’t as simple as “Baltimore won a league-leading 101 games this year”, but ... Baltimore did win a league-leading 101 games this year. The O’s didn’t reach the stratospheric highs this Rangers team did when its offense was breaking records during the first half, but they also never really went through any sort of prolonged slump, posting a winning record in every single month. Their lineup is nearly as deep as Texas’, with very few weak points and some real oomph up top with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander.

Their pitching, meanwhile, is a bit sturdier than the Rangers at the moment: Even if this is the Eovaldi we’ll get in this series — hardly a sure thing — Baltimore has Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and John Means lined up, which feels more reliable than Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery and Dane Dunning. If there’s a question mark for this Orioles team, it’s in the bullpen, where there’s a Bautista-sized hole and some lower-leverage arms thrust into high-leverage roles. But that’s also a glaring weakness of the Rangers, who had an ugly 5.28 bullpen ERA in September and a dearth of quality options outside Aroldis Chapman. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Texas’ lineup churned its way to a series win. Baltimore begs fewer questions, though, and with home-field advantage, they get the nod here.