Rangers vs. Orioles Game 2 best bet and odds: Look for Montgomery to stymie O's

The Baltimore Orioles are only one game into their 2023 postseason journey, but they're already approaching must-win territory.

The pregame narrative: Baltimore lost to Texas in Game 1 on Saturday and can ill afford to go down 0-2 before hitting the road in this best-of-five set. Whether or not the Orioles can even things up with the Rangers, we think Texas lefty Jordan Montgomery can keep Baltimore's bats in check.

MLB oddsas of 9:10 a.m. ET on 10/08/23.

Rangers vs. Orioles best bet

Best Bet: Orioles under 3.5 runs (+107)

Baltimore is running into a blazing-hot pitcher, which makes this plus-money team prop worth a look.

In five starts from mid-September until now, Montgomery is 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA. He has more strikeouts (27) than hits allowed (25), and four of those five starts came against teams with 85-plus wins (Mariners twice, Blue Jays, Rays).

If you can put up with the juice, we really like Montgomery to go over 14.5 outs (-143) this afternoon. He's cleared that in 30 of 33 outings this season.

But we'll stick with the plus-money play because the Orioles' offence hasn't given us much to be excited by.

MLB oddsas of 9:10 a.m. ET on 10/08/23.

The Orioles have finished under 3.5 runs in six of their past nine games, averaging 2.6 runs in that span. And although they've fared pretty well against lefties this year (112 wRC+ vs. LHP, eighth in MLB), they haven't faced Montgomery.

In four starts against Baltimore in 2022, Montgomery — then a Yankee — pitched to a 2.91 ERA.

Dating back to June 20, opponents have scored under 3.5 runs in 12 of Montgomery's 19 outings. We'll gladly take plus money to see that trend continue.

Key stat: Baltimore has scored under 3.5 runs in six of seven matchups against Texas this year, averaging exactly 3.0 runs per game in those matchups.