Rebel fair odds: Timberlake towers, but 1 other intrigues

Don't let an overwhelming favorite in the 13-horse Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn discourage you from playing the Kentucky Derby qualifying race worth 50 points to the winner. There is absolutely opportunity among this group.

Timberlake is 6-5 on the morning line and is worth that price, but I suspect he will be lower, even odds-on. That makes him a tough win prospect, but I do think he will offer better value than those ranked on the morning line behind him. Second choice no. 11 Just Steel (7-2), third choice no. 2 Northern Flame (5-1) and fourth choice no. 6 Dimatic (8-1) all figure to be bigger underlays, especially Northern Flame, who is a total toss to me at anywhere close to that price.

Timberlake possesses a tremendous performance advantage given his speed ratings to date. He also has a tactical advantage because he should have no problem getting position from post 7 against this field and getting the jump on everyone else. As seen in the tweet below, the 1 1/16-mile races at Oaklawn play fairly.

The horse I want to bet is no. 9 Lagynos, who ended up on the front end for the first time in his career last out in the Smarty Jones while setting a really fast pace to boot. In a perfect world, he sits right behind Timberlake and kicks on with that one. He's probably not good enough to beat that one home, but at 20-1 on the morning line, I'll gamble on him with plenty of strong keys underneath Timberlake.